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Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Francesco Maestrelli prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Bautista Agut vs Maestrelli predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Roberto Bautista Agut will face Francesco Maestrelli in the round of 128 at the ATP Rome event on Thursday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Roberto Bautista Agut as the most likely winner of the Bautista Agut vs. Maestrelli match.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Bautista Agut vs. Maestrelli prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's Bautista Agut-Maestrelli men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives Bautista Agut a 66% chance of winning against Maestrelli at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Bautista Agut has a 63% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Bautista Agut (-2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 52% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Francesco Maestrelli odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Bautista Agut | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -183 | +164 |
| First Set | -164 | +130 |
| Game Spread | -2.5 (-150) | +2.5 (-105) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-104) | u22.5 (-128) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Bautista Agut vs. Maestrelli picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bautista Agut | -183 |
| First Set | Maestrelli | -104 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 22.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Bautista Agut vs. Maestrelli updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Roberto Bautista Agut and Francesco Maestrelli is scheduled to begin on Thursday at 8:25 AM ET.
- Who: Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Francesco Maestrelli
- Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
- Approx. Time: 8:25 AM ET/5:25AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Roberto Bautista Agut, with a 66% win probability, will likely beat Francesco Maestrelli at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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