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Rafael Jodar vs. Luciano Darderi prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Jodar vs Darderi predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Rafael Jodar will take on Luciano Darderi in the quarterfinals at the ATP Rome event on Wednesday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Rafael Jodar as the most likely winner of the Jodar vs. Darderi match.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Jodar vs. Darderi prediction: Who will win and advance to the semifinals?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's Jodar-Darderi men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Jodar a 69% chance of defeating Darderi at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Jodar has a 65% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Jodar (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the **over/under of 21.5 games has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.
Rafael Jodar vs. Luciano Darderi odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Jodar | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -235 | +202 |
| First Set | -200 | +162 |
| Game Spread | -3.5 (-118) | +3.5 (-112) |
| Total Games | o21.5 (-124) | u21.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Jodar vs. Darderi picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jodar | -235 |
| First Set | Darderi | -110 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 21.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Jodar vs. Darderi updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Rafael Jodar and Luciano Darderi is scheduled to start on Wednesday at 2:30 PM ET.
- Who: Rafael Jodar vs. Luciano Darderi
- Date: Wednesday, May 13, 2026
- Approx. Time: 2:30 PM ET/11:30AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Quarterfinals
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Rafael Jodar, with a 69% win probability, will likely beat Luciano Darderi at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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