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Premier League predictions: Using data to predict scores in Week 24
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Jason Bevilacqua
This week, three particular scorelines have emerged with the highest probabilities in the Premier League: 14%, 12%, and 15%.
After another successful week for the Dimers Premier League soccer predictions - the attention now shifts to a new serving of EPL correct score predictions.
Each week, Dimers’ data-driven algorithms simulate every English Premier League match thousands of times, processing 1,000s of inputs across expected-goals metrics, tactical structures, recent form, and player-level data to predict the most likely full-time scorelines.
This week, three particular scorelines have emerged with the highest probabilities in the English Premier League: 14%, 12%, and 15%.
For Gameweek 24, the strongest correct-score probabilities come from these three matches:
✅ Leeds vs. Arsenal
✅ Nottinham Forest vs. Crystal Palace
✅ Sunderland vs. Burnley
Here is why the data points toward these specific outcomes for the upcoming fixtures.
Premier League soccer Week 24 score predictions
Leeds vs. Arsenal: 0-1 (14% probability)
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal currently sit atop the Premier League with 50 points, but their recent form has been uncharacteristically stuttering. Conversely, Daniel Farke’s Leeds United have turned Elland Road into a fortress, losing just twice at home all season.
The data case: While Arsenal boast the league's joint-best defense (only 17 goals conceded in 23 games), their attacking output has dipped. The model identifies a 14% probability for a 0-1 Arsenal win.
Why the algorithm picked it: Leeds' defensive organization has improved drastically, conceding only 38 goals this season—a far cry from their previous top-flight struggles. With Leeds’ Gabriel Gudmundsson among a number of players in doubt, and Arsenal needing to grind out results to maintain their four-point lead over Man City, the data suggests a low-scoring affair where Arsenal’s tactical discipline outlasts Leeds’ resilience.
MORE: Leeds vs. Arsenal predictions
Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace: 1-1 (12% probability)
This Sunday at the City Ground features two sides desperate for consistency. Sean Dyche, now at the helm of Nottingham Forest, has brought a more pragmatic style, but they face an Oliver Glasner side that specializes in frustrating "big" attacks.
The data case: Crystal Palace have seen a high percentage of low-scoring away draws this season. The algorithm flags a 1-1 draw as the 12% favorite.
Why the algorithm picked it: Both teams have struggled for "ruthlessness" in front of goal lately. Forest's recent 2-0 win over Brentford showed spirit, but Palace’s defensive structure remains rigid despite their 15th-place standing. When you factor in the "feisty" atmosphere noted by analysts following summer transfer tensions, the model sees these two canceling each other out.
MORE: Forest vs. Palace predictions
Sunderland vs. Burnley: 1-0 (15% probability)
The highest probability of the entire weekend belongs to the Monday Night Football clash at the Stadium of Light. Régis Le Bris has done a phenomenal job with Sunderland on their top-flight return, while Scott Parker’s Burnley are languishing in 19th, ten points from safety.
The data case: A 1-0 Sunderland victory stands at a massive 15% probability—the highest "Correct Score" confidence rating in Gameweek 24.
Why the algorithm picked it: Sunderland are yet to be beaten at the Stadium of Light this season. Burnley, meanwhile, have the league's second-worst attack, scoring just 25 goals. Parker often adopts a pragmatic, "frustrate the crowd" approach away from home, but Sunderland’s xG (Expected Goals) of 23.78 compared to Burnley’s defensive frailties (44 conceded) suggests the Black Cats will find the breakthrough, but likely won't run away with it.
MORE: Sunderland vs. Burnley predictions
How Dimers finds the edge
These percentages aren't guesses; they are the result of comprehensive machine learning models. By analyzing how a team performs in specific weather conditions, against specific tactical setups, and even individual player performance levels, the Dimers algorithm identifies value where the human eye sees a toss-up.
Whether it’s Arsenal’s defensive solidity or Burnley’s toothless away form, the data is telling a story.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Jason Bevilacqua through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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