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Read Article Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Marton Fucsovics prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Carreno Busta vs Fucsovics predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Pablo Carreno Busta will take on Marton Fucsovics in the round of 128 at the ATP Madrid event on Thursday.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Pablo Carreno Busta as the most likely winner of the Carreno Busta vs. Fucsovics match.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Carreno Busta vs. Fucsovics prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's Carreno Busta-Fucsovics men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Carreno Busta a 52% chance of defeating Fucsovics at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Carreno Busta has a 52% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show that the bookmakers have got it right with the -0.5 games spread, with each player projected to have a 50-50 chance of covering, while the over 22.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Marton Fucsovics odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Carreno Busta | Fucsovics |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -106 | -110 |
| First Set | -111 | -111 |
| Game Spread | -0.5 (-112) | +0.5 (-118) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-118) | u22.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Carreno Busta vs. Fucsovics picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Carreno Busta | -106 |
| First Set | Fucsovics | -118 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Pablo Carreno Busta to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Carreno Busta vs. Fucsovics updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Pablo Carreno Busta and Marton Fucsovics is scheduled to begin on Thursday at 5:00 AM ET.
- Who: Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Marton Fucsovics
- Date: Thursday, April 23, 2026
- Approx. Time: 5:00 AM ET/2:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Pablo Carreno Busta, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat Marton Fucsovics at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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