...
...
Read Article
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Alejandro Tabilo prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Carreno Busta vs Tabilo predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Pablo Carreno Busta will take on Alejandro Tabilo in the round of 128 at the ATP Rome event on Wednesday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Alejandro Tabilo as the most likely winner of the Carreno Busta vs. Tabilo match.
This article offers further insights into Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Carreno Busta vs. Tabilo prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's Carreno Busta-Tabilo men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives Tabilo a 60% chance of winning against Carreno Busta at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Tabilo has a 58% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Carreno Busta (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 22.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Alejandro Tabilo odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Carreno Busta | Tabilo |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +184 | -212 |
| First Set | +150 | -189 |
| Game Spread | +3.5 (-126) | -3.5 (-108) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-108) | u22.5 (-124) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Carreno Busta vs. Tabilo picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Carreno Busta | +184 |
| First Set | Tabilo | -108 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Pablo Carreno Busta to win.
Although Carreno Busta is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Carreno Busta vs. Tabilo updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Pablo Carreno Busta and Alejandro Tabilo is scheduled to commence on Wednesday at 12:00 PM ET.
- Who: Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Alejandro Tabilo
- Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2026
- Approx. Time: 12:00 PM ET/9:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Alejandro Tabilo, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat Pablo Carreno Busta at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
Advertiser disclosure