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Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Daniel Merida prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Basilashvili vs Merida predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Nikoloz Basilashvili and Daniel Merida are scheduled to meet in the round of 128 of the ATP Italian Open event on Thursday.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model projects Daniel Merida as the most likely winner of the Basilashvili vs. Merida match.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Basilashvili vs. Merida prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Basilashvili-Merida men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives Merida a 55% chance of beating Basilashvili at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Merida has a 53% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show that the bookmakers have got it right with the -1.5 games spread, with each player projected to have a 50-50 chance of covering, while the **over/under of 22.5 games also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Daniel Merida odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Basilashvili | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +136 | -164 |
| First Set | +120 | -152 |
| Game Spread | +1.5 (-105) | -1.5 (-155) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-106) | u22.5 (-125) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Basilashvili vs. Merida picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Basilashvili | +136 |
| First Set | Merida | -106 |
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Nikoloz Basilashvili to win.
Although Basilashvili is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Basilashvili vs. Merida updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Nikoloz Basilashvili and Daniel Merida is scheduled to start on Thursday at 5:00 AM ET.
- Who: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Daniel Merida
- Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
- Approx. Time: 5:00 AM ET/2:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Daniel Merida, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat Nikoloz Basilashvili at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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