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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Sunday, May 10, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 5/10.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, May 10, 2026—are live with the Knicks' Jalen Brunson projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Brunson, Victor Wembanyama and Anthony Edwards lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (May 10, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 15.2% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 14.6% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 14.2% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 12.8% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 12.4% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 12.3% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 11.3% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 11.1% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 10.1% |
| Mikal Bridges | Knicks | 9.4% |
| Paul George | 76ers | 9.4% |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 9.2% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 8.2% |
| Devin Vassell | Spurs | 7.7% |
| Julian Champagnie | Spurs | 7.2% |
NBA first basket picks today (May 10, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikal Bridges | Knicks | 0.4% | +1000 | 9.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/10.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onSunday, May 10, 2026, Jalen Brunson, Victor Wembanyama and Anthony Edwards lead our first basket projections, while Mikal Bridges shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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