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Lakers vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Game 1 [2026 NBA Playoffs]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder predictions for NBA Playoffs Tuesday.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will face the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 1 of their 2026 NBA Playoffs series at Paycom Center on Tuesday, starting at 8:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Lakers vs. Thunder Game 1 matchup.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Ajay Mitchell, while the Lakers will rely on Austin Reaves, LeBron James and Rui Hachimura.
Luka Doncic will miss the game though with the Slovenian star out for this one.
This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Lakers vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win Game 1?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NBA Playoffs matchup between the Lakers and Thunder, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Thunder an 88% chance of defeating the Lakers in Game 1 of the series. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 114-100.
According to our model, the Lakers (+15.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 214.5 points has a 51% chance of going over.
Lakers vs. Thunder Game 1 odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lakers | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +15.5 (-110) | -15.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | +650 | -900 |
| Total | o214.5 (-105) | u214.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lakers vs. Thunder picks and best bet for Game 1
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lakers +15.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Lakers | +650 |
| Total | Over 214.5 | -105 |
According to our best NBA bets for Tuesday, the top play to make on this game is Lakers +15.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lakers vs. Thunder Game 1 player props
NBA prop bets are a great way to wager on Tuesday's Lakers vs. Thunder game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.
Austin Reaves is expected to lead the Lakers with 21 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 31 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists for the Thunder.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Lakers prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Lakers are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Reaves | 21 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 41 |
| LeBron James | 21 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 49 |
| Rui Hachimura | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 24 |
| Deandre Ayton | 11 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 27 |
| Marcus Smart | 11 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 26 |
Thunder prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 31 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 54 |
| Chet Holmgren | 17 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 39 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 15 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 30 |
| I. Hartenstein | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 30 |
| Alex Caruso | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
Lakers vs. Thunder Game 1 updates and essential details
Tuesday's Game 1 between the Thunder and Lakers in the NBA Playoffs is scheduled to begin at 8:30 PM ET.
- Who: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date: Tuesday, May 5, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
- Venue: Paycom Center
- NBA Playoffs bracket: Updated NBA Playoffs bracket and schedule
The NBA Playoffs is an annual postseason tournament held to determine the league's champion.
Sixteen teams, including the Lakers and Thunder, reached the 2026 NBA Playoffs, which spans four rounds: the First Round, Conference Semifinals, Conference Finals, and NBA Finals.
Each round of the NBA Playoffs is played as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins progressing to the next round until a champion is crowned.
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Make the most of Dimers' Lakers vs. Thunder predictions by exploring the below offer from Novig.
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with an 88% win probability, will likely beat the Lakers in Tuesday's NBA playoffs matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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