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Liverpool vs. Leeds prediction, odds, Premier League picks [1/1/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Liverpool vs Leeds predictions for Premier League Thursday.
Premier League action continues on New Year's Day at 12:30 PM ET as Leeds takes on Liverpool at Anfield.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven Premier League model predicts Liverpool as the most likely winner of the Liverpool vs. Leeds game.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Liverpool vs. Leeds prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Premier League match between Liverpool and Leeds 10,000 times as part of our Premier League predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model indicates a 67.4% chance of Liverpool winning, a 13.6% chance for Leeds, and a 19.0% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 58% chance of going over, according to our model.
Liverpool vs. Leeds odds
We have researched the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Liverpool | Leeds | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -200 | +600 | +350 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -140 | +114 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Liverpool vs. Leeds picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Liverpool | -200 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -140 |
According to our Premier League best bets, the top play to make on this game is Liverpool to win.
Liverpool vs. Leeds: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-0 Liverpool win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| LIV 2-0 Leeds | 11.4% |
| LIV 1-0 Leeds | 10.5% |
| LIV 2-1 Leeds | 9.8% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 50.9% chance that both Liverpool and Leeds score, and a 49.1% probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
These predictions are based on each team's average score after 10,000 simulations.
Liverpool vs. Leeds game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's Premier League matchup between Liverpool and Leeds at Anfield is scheduled to start in the United States at 12:30 PM ET.
World Cup 2026 watch: Brenden Aaronson (USA)
Leeds United midfielder Brenden Aaronson is a key name to follow for USMNT supporters this year as interest grows ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2026, with rising interest in World Cup news and early speculation about who will win the World Cup. With the United States drawn against Australia, Paraguay, and one of Türkiye, Romania, Slovakia, or Kosovo in Group D next year, Aaronson's Premier League form will be watched closely.
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Liverpool has a 67.4% win probability on New Year's Day, Leeds has a 13.6% win probability, and there is a 19.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Liverpool vs. Leeds insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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