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Jasmine Paolini vs. Elise Mertens prediction, odds, picks for WTA Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Paolini vs Mertens predictions for WTA Italian Open.
Jasmine Paolini will take on Elise Mertens in the round of 32 at the WTA Rome event on Saturday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Elise Mertens as the most likely winner of the Paolini vs. Mertens match.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Paolini vs. Mertens prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's Paolini-Mertens women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives Mertens a 53% chance of winning against Paolini at the WTA Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Mertens has a 52% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Paolini (+1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 21.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Jasmine Paolini vs. Elise Mertens odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Paolini | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +115 | -139 |
| First Set | +110 | -139 |
| Game Spread | +1.5 (-112) | -1.5 (-118) |
| Total Games | o21.5 (-105) | u21.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Paolini vs. Mertens picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Paolini | +115 |
| First Set | Mertens | -105 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Jasmine Paolini to win.
Although Paolini is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Paolini vs. Mertens updates and essential details
The WTA Italian Open match between Jasmine Paolini and Elise Mertens is scheduled to begin on Saturday at 7:00 AM ET.
- Who: Jasmine Paolini vs. Elise Mertens
- Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
- Approx. Time: 7:00 AM ET/4:00AM PT
- Tournament: WTA Rome, Italy Women's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 32
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Elise Mertens, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat Jasmine Paolini at the WTA Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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