Home Run Cheat Sheet - HR Data, Stats, Matchups and More - Saturday, September 30Last updated: | Published:
Welcome to the Home Run Cheat Sheet! If you’re a regular Dimers user, you know there’s not much more we love to bet on than home runs, especially in the dog days of summer dominated by baseball. We use our cutting-edge predictive analytics machine combined with strong MLB betting trends to find both the best value and most likely home run hitters on any given day. Powered by our A.I. models, we run 1000s of simulations on every game in every slate to find out when the sportsbooks are wrong and how you can use that to your advantage to turn a long-term profit. You can find all of our home run props with an edge in our best MLB props today section.
However, even though we love our DimersBOT, a savvy bettor has no shortage of tools in their arsenal and knows that the more resources and data you can use to back up your bets, the stronger they’ll be. While nothing is ever a guarantee in sports betting, you’ll find yourself hitting your wagers more often than not when making full use of the resources available to you. Hopefully, this article will give you a little insight into how we arrive at our final decisions when putting together our HR Round Robins and two-leg HR parlay picks.
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Home Run Cheat Sheet
For ease of use, this article will be broken into four main sections as follows:
- Today’s Starting Pitchers and their HR allowed data
- Hot hitters – most HR over last # of days
- The worst bullpens in terms of HR allowed
- Historical matchups – the hitters with the best HR and batting history
Be sure to cross-reference these lists with our MLB prop bets which continuously update throughout the day, as well as our Best Bets Today in All Sports for Saturday, September 30.
🎯 Dinger Targets
Today’s starting pitchers with their total home runs and home runs per 9 allowed this season. Based on scheduled starters and subject to change.
|PIT : Quinn Priester (R) 3-2, ERA 7.86||MIA Marlins||11||44.2||2.24|
|CIN : Connor Phillips (R) 1-0, ERA 5.66||STL Cardinals||5||20.2||2.23|
|STL : Drew Rom (L) 1-4, ERA 7.98||CIN Reds||6||29.1||1.86|
|TOR : Hyun Jin Ryu (L) 3-3, ERA 3.31||TB Rays||9||49||1.65|
|WSH : Joan Adon (R) 2-4, ERA 6.42||ATL Braves||8||47.2||1.53|
|PHI : Cristopher Sanchez (L) 3-5, ERA 3.48||NY Mets||16||98.1||1.47|
|TEX : Andrew Heaney (L) 10-6, ERA 4.28||SEA Mariners||23||143||1.45|
|NYY : Clarke Schmidt (R) 9-9, ERA 4.65||KC Royals||23||155||1.34|
|SEA : Luis Castillo (R) 14-8, ERA 3.24||TEX Rangers||28||194.1||1.30|
|LA : Clayton Kershaw (L) 13-4, ERA 2.42||SF Giants||18||126.1||1.28|
|BOS : Kutter Crawford (R) 6-8, ERA 4.23||BAL Orioles||17||123.1||1.24|
|SF : Tristan Beck (R) 3-2, ERA 4.05||LA Dodgers||10||80||1.13|
|CHW : Mike Clevinger (R) 9-8, ERA 3.40||SD Padres||16||129.2||1.11|
|BAL : Kyle Gibson (R) 15-9, ERA 4.86||BOS Red Sox||23||187||1.11|
|ATL : Spencer Strider (R) 19-5, ERA 3.81||WSH Nationals||22||181.2||1.09|
|SD : Michael Wacha (R) 13-4, ERA 3.39||CHI White Sox||15||127.1||1.06|
|ARI : Merrill Kelly (R) 12-7, ERA 3.48||HOU Astros||20||170.2||1.06|
|HOU : Justin Verlander (R) 12-8, ERA 3.32||ARI D-Backs||18||157.1||1.03|
|CHC : Jordan Wicks (L) 4-1, ERA 3.00||MIL Brewers||3||33||0.82|
|CLE : Triston McKenzie (R) 0-2, ERA 6.17||DET Tigers||1||11.200||0.80|
|KC : Steven Cruz (R) 0-0, ERA 5.40||NY Yankees||1||11.2||0.80|
|MIN : Emilio Pagan (R) 4-1, ERA 3.03||COL Rockies||5||68.1||0.66|
|MIA : JT Chargois (R) 1-0, ERA 3.67||PIT Pirates||3||41.2||0.66|
|NYM : Jose Quintana (L) 3-6, ERA 3.39||PHI Phllies||4||71.2||0.51|
|NYM : Jose Quintana (L) 3-6, ERA 3.39||PHI Phillies||4||71.2||0.51|
|TB : Shawn Armstrong (R) 1-0, ERA 1.41||TOR Blue Jays||2||51||0.35|
|OAK : Joe Boyle (R) 1-0, ERA 0.00||LA Angels||0||9.000||0.00|
|DET : N/A 0-0, ERA 0.00||CLE Guardians||-||-||0.00|
|PHI : N/A 0-0, ERA 0.00||NY Mets||-||-||0.00|
|MIL : N/A 0-0, ERA 0.00||CHI Cubs||-||-||0.00|
|COL : N/A 0-0, ERA 0.00||MIN Twins||-||-||0.00|
|LAA : N/A 0-0, ERA 0.00||OAK Athletics||-||-||0.00|
🔥 Hot Hitters
These hitters have mashed a notable amount of home runs in recent weeks.
|BATTER||TIMEFRAME (LAST # OF DAYS)||HR|
|R. Acuna Jr. (ATL)||Last 30||11|
|M. Olson (ATL)||Last 30||11|
|J. Soto (SD)||Last 30||10|
|N. Velazquez (KC)||Last 30||9|
|M. Semien (TEX)||Last 30||9|
|K. Schwarber (PHI)||Last 30||9|
|JD Martinez (LAD)||Last 15||7|
|C. Encarnacion-Strand (CIN)||Last 15||7|
💥 Down Bad Bullpens
Starting pitcher yanked early or threw a gem? Not to worry, these bullpens give up plenty of late-game dingers!
🤝 Hello, Old Friend
These hitters have some reliable history against the starter they’ll be facing. Players with just one home run will typically require a minimum of 10 PAs and a .250 batting average unless otherwise noted. Sample sizes will vary.
|BATTER||OPP. PITCHER||PLATE APPEARANCES||HR||AVG|
|Austin Slater (SF)||Clayton Kershaw (L)||25||3||.240|
|Yandy Diaz (TB)||Hyun Jin Ryu (L)||15||2||.250|
|Luis Garcia (WAS)||Spencer Strider (R)||10||2||.400|
|AJ Pollock (SF)||Clayton Kershaw (L)||51||2||.192|
|Nick Castellanos (PHI)||Jose Quintana (L)||47||2||.267|
*Designates potential starters not yet confirmed
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