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Hamad Medjedovic vs. Joao Fonseca prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Medjedovic vs Fonseca predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Hamad Medjedovic and Joao Fonseca will lock horns in the round of 64 of the ATP Italian Open event on Saturday.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Joao Fonseca as the most likely winner of the Medjedovic vs. Fonseca match.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Medjedovic vs. Fonseca prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's Medjedovic-Fonseca men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives Fonseca a 61% chance of defeating Medjedovic at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Fonseca has a 58% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show that the bookmakers have got it right with the -2.5 games spread, with each player projected to have a 50-50 chance of covering, while the under 22.5 games has a 54% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Hamad Medjedovic vs. Joao Fonseca odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Medjedovic | Fonseca |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +162 | -190 |
| First Set | +137 | -175 |
| Game Spread | +2.5 (-110) | -2.5 (-122) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-118) | u22.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Medjedovic vs. Fonseca picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Medjedovic | +162 |
| First Set | Fonseca | -112 |
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Hamad Medjedovic to win.
Although Medjedovic is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Medjedovic vs. Fonseca updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Hamad Medjedovic and Joao Fonseca is scheduled to start on Saturday at 1:55 PM ET.
- Who: Hamad Medjedovic vs. Joao Fonseca
- Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
- Approx. Time: 1:55 PM ET/10:55AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Joao Fonseca, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat Hamad Medjedovic at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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