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Frances Tiafoe vs. Ignacio Buse prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Tiafoe vs Buse predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Frances Tiafoe and Ignacio Buse will lock horns in the round of 64 of the ATP Italian Open event on Saturday.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Ignacio Buse as the most likely winner of the Tiafoe vs. Buse match.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Tiafoe vs. Buse prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's Tiafoe-Buse men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives Buse a 57% chance of defeating Tiafoe at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Buse has a 54% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Tiafoe (+2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 22.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Frances Tiafoe vs. Ignacio Buse odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Tiafoe | Buse |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +142 | -165 |
| First Set | +120 | -152 |
| Game Spread | +2.5 (-112) | -2.5 (-118) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-110) | u22.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Tiafoe vs. Buse picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tiafoe | +142 |
| First Set | Buse | -110 |
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is over 22.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Tiafoe vs. Buse updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Frances Tiafoe and Ignacio Buse is scheduled to start on Saturday at 8:30 AM ET.
- Who: Frances Tiafoe vs. Ignacio Buse
- Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
- Approx. Time: 8:30 AM ET/5:30AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Ignacio Buse, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat Frances Tiafoe at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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