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Oilers vs. Stars prediction: Dallas favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [3/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Dallas Stars will face the Edmonton Oilers in NHL action at American Airlines Center on Thursday, beginning at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Stars as the most likely winner of the Oilers vs. Stars game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Oilers vs. Stars prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Oilers and Stars 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Stars a 54% chance of beating the Oilers.
According to our model, the Oilers (+1.5) have a 66% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 51% chance of going over.
Oilers vs. Stars odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Oilers | Stars |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-218) | -1.5 (+186) |
| Moneyline | +110 | -125 |
| Total | o6.5 (-130) | u6.5 (+110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Oilers vs. Stars picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Stars -1.5 | +186 |
| Moneyline | Stars | -125 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | +110 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Oilers vs. Stars player props
Who will score a goal in Oilers vs. Stars?
According to our model, Jason Robertson is most likely to score an anytime goal in Oilers vs. Stars.
Our projections give Robertson a 41.3% chance of scoring a goal at American Airlines Center, while the star is an 8.3% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Edmonton Oilers
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | 41.3% |
| Zach Hyman | 36.6% |
| Connor McDavid | 32.7% |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 20.2% |
| Evan Bouchard | 19.5% |
Dallas Stars
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | 41.3% |
| Wyatt Johnston | 41.0% |
| Matt Duchene | 31.8% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 28.1% |
| Jamie Benn | 21.5% |
First goal scorer predictions
Edmonton Oilers
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | 7.7% |
| Zach Hyman | 7.1% |
| Connor McDavid | 6.1% |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 3.7% |
| Jack Roslovic | 3.3% |
Dallas Stars
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | 8.3% |
| Wyatt Johnston | 7.6% |
| Matt Duchene | 5.7% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 4.9% |
| Jamie Benn | 3.9% |
Oilers vs. Stars game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Stars and Oilers at American Airlines Center is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars
- Date: Thursday, March 12, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Conclusion
We predict the Stars, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Oilers on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Oilers vs. Stars insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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