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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves prediction: Why Denver is favored to win Thursday's NBA matchup [4/30/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves predictions for NBA Playoffs Thursday.
The Minnesota Timberwolves will face the favored Denver Nuggets in the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Target Center on Thursday, starting at 9:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Nuggets as the most likely winner of the Nuggets vs. Timberwolves game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Timberwolves lineup will feature stars like Julius Randle, Ayo Dosunmu and Jaden McDaniels, while the Nuggets will rely on Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Nuggets vs. Wolves prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NBA Playoffs game between the Nuggets and Timberwolves, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Nuggets a 72% chance of defeating the Timberwolves. Our predicted final score has the Nuggets winning 115-108.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Nuggets and Timberwolves each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 225.5 points has a 52% chance of staying under.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Nuggets | Timberwolves |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -6.5 (-110) | +6.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -250 | +210 |
| Total | o225.5 (-108) | u225.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Nuggets -6.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Nuggets | -250 |
| Total | Under 225.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Thursday, the top play to make on this game is Nuggets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves player props
NBA player props are an exciting way to wager on the Denver vs. Minnesota matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Target Center.
Nikola Jokic is expected to lead the Nuggets with 30 points, 14 rebounds and 13 assists, while Julius Randle is projected to have 21 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists for the Timberwolves.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Nuggets prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Nuggets are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 30 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 76 |
| Jamal Murray | 29 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 53 |
| Aaron Gordon | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 25 |
| Cameron Johnson | 12 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 25 |
| Christian Braun | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 25 |
Timberwolves prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Timberwolves:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | 21 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 42 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 21 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40 |
| Jaden McDaniels | 17 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 33 |
| Naz Reid | 13 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 29 |
| Bones Hyland | 12 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 25 |
Nuggets vs. Wolves game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between the Timberwolves and Nuggets in the NBA Playoffs is scheduled to commence at 9:30 PM ET.
- Who: Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
- Date: Thursday, April 30, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
- Venue: Target Center
- NBA Playoffs bracket: Updated NBA Playoffs bracket and schedule
The NBA Playoffs is an annual elimination tournament held to decide the league's champion.
A total of 16 teams, including the Nuggets and Timberwolves, reached the NBA Playoffs 2026, which includes four rounds: the First Round, Conference Semifinals, Conference Finals, and NBA Finals.
Each round of the NBA Playoffs is played as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins moving on to the next round until a champion is crowned.
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Make the most of Dimers' Nuggets vs. Timberwolves predictions by exploring the below offer from Novig.
Conclusion
We predict the Nuggets, with a 72% win probability, will likely beat the Timberwolves in Thursday's NBA playoffs matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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