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Stars vs. Golden Knights prediction: Vegas favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [1/29/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars are scheduled to meet in the NHL at T-Mobile Arena on Thursday, with puck drop at 10:00 PM ET.
The championship matchup pairs two 14–3 teams coming off sharply contrasting conference title games, with New England advancing through a low-scoring, snow-filled AFC Championship win over Denver and Seattle earning its place after a 31–27 NFC Championship thriller against the Rams.
The clash also spotlights two offensive focal points, with Drake Maye guiding New England through a composed, run-focused AFC title performance and Jaxon Smith-Njigba entering as Seattle’s primary playmaker following a 153-yard, one-touchdown outing in the NFC Championship.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Golden Knights a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Stars.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Stars vs. Golden Knights matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Stars vs. Golden Knights prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL game between the Stars and Golden Knights 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Golden Knights a 53% chance of defeating the Stars.
According to our model, the Stars (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 5.5 goals has a 57% chance of going over.
Stars vs. Golden Knights odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Stars | Golden Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-245) | -1.5 (+210) |
| Moneyline | +100 | -118 |
| Total | o5.5 (-138) | u5.5 (+112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stars vs. Golden Knights picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Golden Knights -1.5 | +210 |
| Moneyline | Golden Knights | -118 |
| Total | Over 5.5 | -138 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Golden Knights -1.5 at the spread.
Stars vs. Golden Knights player props
Who will score a goal in Stars vs. Golden Knights?
According to our model, Pavel Dorofeyev is most likely to score an anytime goal in Stars vs. Golden Knights.
Our projections give Dorofeyev a 35.4% chance of scoring a goal at T-Mobile Arena, while the star is a 6.5% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Dallas Stars
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | 34.3% |
| Mikko Rantanen | 33.0% |
| Wyatt Johnston | 30.2% |
| Roope Hintz | 28.0% |
| Matt Duchene | 23.9% |
Vegas Golden Knights
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Pavel Dorofeyev | 35.4% |
| Tomas Hertl | 32.5% |
| Jack Eichel | 31.5% |
| Mark Stone | 30.2% |
| Mitch Marner | 23.6% |
First goal scorer predictions
Dallas Stars
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | 6.8% |
| Mikko Rantanen | 6.6% |
| Wyatt Johnston | 6.3% |
| Roope Hintz | 5.6% |
| Matt Duchene | 4.2% |
Vegas Golden Knights
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Pavel Dorofeyev | 6.5% |
| Tomas Hertl | 6.3% |
| Jack Eichel | 6.0% |
| Mark Stone | 5.9% |
| Mitch Marner | 4.2% |
Stars vs. Golden Knights game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between the Golden Knights and Stars at T-Mobile Arena is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights
- Date: Thursday, January 29, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Golden Knights, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Stars on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Stars vs. Golden Knights insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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