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Cristian Garin vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Garin vs Davidovich Fokina predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Cristian Garin will face Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the round of 64 at the ATP Rome event on Saturday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Alejandro Davidovich Fokina as the most likely winner of the Garin vs. Davidovich Fokina match.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Garin vs. Davidovich Fokina prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's Garin-Davidovich Fokina men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives Davidovich Fokina a 55% chance of defeating Garin at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Davidovich Fokina has a 53% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Garin (+2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Cristian Garin vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Garin | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +139 | -152 |
| First Set | +110 | -139 |
| Game Spread | +2.5 (-120) | -2.5 (-110) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-110) | u22.5 (-122) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Garin vs. Davidovich Fokina picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Garin | +139 |
| First Set | Davidovich Fokina | -110 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Cristian Garin to win.
Although Garin is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Garin vs. Davidovich Fokina updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Cristian Garin and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is scheduled to commence on Saturday at 7:20 AM ET.
- Who: Cristian Garin vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
- Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
- Approx. Time: 7:20 AM ET/4:20AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat Cristian Garin at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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