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Avalanche vs. Stars prediction: Colorado favored to win Friday's NHL matchup [3/6/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars predictions for NHL Friday.
The Dallas Stars will square off with the Colorado Avalanche, in what is expected to be a close NHL game, at American Airlines Center on Friday, beginning at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Avalanche a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Stars.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's Avalanche vs. Stars matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Avs vs. Stars prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's NHL matchup between the Avalanche and Stars 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Avalanche a 52% chance of beating the Stars.
According to our model, the Stars (+1.5) have a 67% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Avalanche vs. Stars odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Avalanche | Stars |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+205) | +1.5 (-230) |
| Moneyline | -120 | +102 |
| Total | o6 (-110) | u6 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Avalanche vs. Stars picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Avalanche -1.5 | +205 |
| Moneyline | Stars | +102 |
| Total | Under 6 | -110 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Avalanche -1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Avalanche vs. Stars player props
Who will score a goal in Avalanche vs. Stars?
According to our model, Jason Robertson is most likely to score an anytime goal in Avalanche vs. Stars.
Our projections give Robertson a 36.6% chance of scoring a goal at American Airlines Center, while the star is a 7.4% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Martin Necas | 32.3% |
| Brock Nelson | 31.5% |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 30.3% |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 30.0% |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 25.3% |
Dallas Stars
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | 36.6% |
| Wyatt Johnston | 36.0% |
| Roope Hintz | 27.6% |
| Matt Duchene | 27.1% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 25.3% |
First goal scorer predictions
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brock Nelson | 6.5% |
| Martin Necas | 6.1% |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 6.0% |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 5.7% |
| Cale Makar | 5.0% |
Dallas Stars
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston | 7.8% |
| Jason Robertson | 7.4% |
| Roope Hintz | 5.4% |
| Matt Duchene | 5.0% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 4.5% |
Avs vs. Stars game-day updates and essential details
Friday's game between the Stars and Avalanche at American Airlines Center is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars
- Date: Friday, March 6, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Conclusion
We predict the Avalanche, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Stars on Friday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Avalanche vs. Stars insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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