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Chelsea vs. Manchester United prediction, odds, Premier League picks [4/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Chelsea vs Manchester United predictions for Premier League Saturday.
Chelsea and Manchester United will lock horns in the Premier League at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, with kickoff at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven Premier League model projects Chelsea as the most likely winner of the Chelsea vs. Manchester United game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Chelsea vs. Manchester United prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's Premier League match between Chelsea and Manchester United, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model suggests a 48.3% chance of Chelsea winning, a 29.2% chance for Manchester United, and a 22.5% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 64% chance of going over, according to our model.
Chelsea vs. Manchester United odds
We have sourced the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Chelsea | Manchester United | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +125 | +220 | +270 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -175 | +138 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Chelsea vs. Manchester United picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chelsea | +125 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -175 |
According to our Premier League best bets, the top play to make on this game is Chelsea to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Chelsea vs. Manchester United: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| CHE 1-1 MUN | 9.9% |
| CHE 2-1 MUN | 9.3% |
| CHE 1-2 MUN | 7% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 64.0% chance of both sides finding the net and a 36.0% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Chelsea vs. Manchester United game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Premier League action between Chelsea and Manchester United at Stamford Bridge is scheduled to begin in the USA at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Chelsea vs. Manchester United
- Date: Saturday, April 18, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Stamford Bridge
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Chelsea has a 48.3% win probability on Saturday, Manchester United has a 29.2% win probability, and there is a 22.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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