Carlos Alcaraz vs. Sebastian Baez prediction, odds, picks for ATP Monte-Carlo Masters 2026

Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez will meet in the round of 32 of the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters event on Tuesday.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely winner of the Alcaraz vs. Baez match.

This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's match, including best bets and picks.

Alcaraz vs. Baez prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's Alcaraz-Baez men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Alcaraz a 96% chance of defeating Baez at the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters tournament.

Additionally, Alcaraz has a 91% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Baez (+6.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 17.5 games has a 59% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Sebastian Baez odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Alcaraz vs. Baez picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: