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Flames vs. Capitals prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Monday's NHL matchup [3/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Calgary Flames vs Washington Capitals predictions for NHL Monday.
The Washington Capitals will face the Calgary Flames in NHL action at Capital One Arena on Monday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Capitals as the most likely winner of the Flames vs. Capitals game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Flames vs. Caps prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NHL matchup between the Flames and Capitals 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Capitals a 61% chance of defeating the Flames.
According to our model, the Flames (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.
Flames vs. Capitals odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Flames | Capitals |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-154) | -1.5 (+130) |
| Moneyline | +160 | -190 |
| Total | o6 (-102) | u6 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Flames vs. Capitals picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Flames +1.5 | -154 |
| Moneyline | Flames | +160 |
| Total | Under 6 | -118 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Flames +1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Flames vs. Capitals player props
Who will score a goal in Flames vs. Capitals?
According to our model, Alex Ovechkin is most likely to score an anytime goal in Flames vs. Capitals.
Our projections give Ovechkin a 30.4% chance of scoring a goal at Capital One Arena, while the star is a 5.9% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Calgary Flames
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Yegor Sharangovich | 24.5% |
| Matthew Coronato | 22.7% |
| Morgan Frost | 20.8% |
| Victor Olofsson | 20.8% |
| Joel Farabee | 18.9% |
Washington Capitals
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 30.4% |
| Aliaksei Protas | 27.8% |
| Dylan Strome | 27.2% |
| Tom Wilson | 26.2% |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | 24.7% |
First goal scorer predictions
Calgary Flames
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Yegor Sharangovich | 4.5% |
| Matthew Coronato | 4.2% |
| Victor Olofsson | 4.1% |
| Morgan Frost | 3.8% |
| Connor Zary | 3.6% |
Washington Capitals
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 5.9% |
| Aliaksei Protas | 5.9% |
| Tom Wilson | 4.9% |
| Dylan Strome | 4.9% |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | 4.8% |
Flames vs. Caps game-day updates and essential details
Monday's matchup between the Capitals and Flames at Capital One Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Calgary Flames vs. Washington Capitals
- Date: Monday, March 9, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Capital One Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Capitals, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Flames on Monday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Flames vs. Capitals insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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