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Brandon Nakashima vs. Roberto Bautista Agut prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Nakashima vs Bautista Agut predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Brandon Nakashima and Roberto Bautista Agut are scheduled to meet in the round of 64 of the ATP Italian Open event on Saturday.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model projects Brandon Nakashima as the most likely winner of the Nakashima vs. Bautista Agut match.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Nakashima vs. Bautista Agut prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's Nakashima-Bautista Agut men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives Nakashima a 61% chance of winning against Bautista Agut at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Nakashima has a 61% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Bautista Agut (+2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 22.5 games has a 53% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Brandon Nakashima vs. Roberto Bautista Agut odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Nakashima | Bautista Agut |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -189 | +162 |
| First Set | -175 | +137 |
| Game Spread | -2.5 (-126) | +2.5 (-108) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-112) | u22.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Nakashima vs. Bautista Agut picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bautista Agut | +162 |
| First Set | Bautista Agut | -112 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Roberto Bautista Agut to win.
Although Bautista Agut is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Nakashima vs. Bautista Agut updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Brandon Nakashima and Roberto Bautista Agut is scheduled to commence on Saturday at 8:30 AM ET.
- Who: Brandon Nakashima vs. Roberto Bautista Agut
- Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
- Approx. Time: 8:30 AM ET/5:30AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Brandon Nakashima, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat Roberto Bautista Agut at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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