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Brandon Nakashima vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Nakashima vs Basilashvili predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Brandon Nakashima and Nikoloz Basilashvili will lock horns in the round of 32 of the ATP Italian Open event on Monday.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Brandon Nakashima as the most likely winner of the Nakashima vs. Basilashvili match.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's match, including best bets and picks.
Nakashima vs. Basilashvili prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's Nakashima-Basilashvili men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives Nakashima a 59% chance of beating Basilashvili at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Nakashima has a 59% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Nakashima (-1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 22.5 games has a 53% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Brandon Nakashima vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Nakashima | Basilashvili |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -150 | +136 |
| First Set | -152 | +120 |
| Game Spread | -1.5 (-150) | +1.5 (-110) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-116) | u22.5 (-116) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Nakashima vs. Basilashvili picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nakashima | -150 |
| First Set | Basilashvili | -116 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Brandon Nakashima to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Nakashima vs. Basilashvili updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Brandon Nakashima and Nikoloz Basilashvili is scheduled to start on Monday at 6:10 AM ET.
- Who: Brandon Nakashima vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili
- Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
- Approx. Time: 6:10 AM ET/3:10AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 32
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Brandon Nakashima, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat Nikoloz Basilashvili at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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