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Aston Villa vs. Leeds prediction, odds, Premier League picks [2/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Aston Villa vs Leeds predictions for Premier League Saturday.
Aston Villa and Leeds will meet in the Premier League at Villa Park on Saturday, with kickoff at 10:00 AM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven Premier League model predicts Aston Villa as the most likely winner of the Aston Villa vs. Leeds game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Aston Villa vs. Leeds prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's Premier League match between Aston Villa and Leeds 10,000 times as part of our Premier League predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 53.8% chance of Aston Villa winning, a 22.7% chance for Leeds, and a 23.5% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 54% chance of going over, according to our model.
Aston Villa vs. Leeds odds
We have sourced the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Aston Villa | Leeds | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -115 | +320 | +280 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -120 | -102 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Aston Villa vs. Leeds picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aston Villa | -115 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -120 |
According to our Premier League best bets, the top play to make on this game is Aston Villa to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Aston Villa vs. Leeds: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| AVL 1-1 Leeds | 11.1% |
| AVL 1-0 Leeds | 10.5% |
| AVL 2-1 Leeds | 9.8% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 54.1% chance that both Aston Villa and Leeds score, and a 45.9% probability of at least one team being held goalless.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Aston Villa vs. Leeds game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Premier League matchup between Aston Villa and Leeds at Villa Park is scheduled to commence in the United States at 10:00 AM ET.
- Who: Aston Villa vs. Leeds
- Date: Saturday, February 21, 2026
- Time: 10:00 AM ET/7:00AM PT
- Venue: Villa Park
World Cup 2026 watch: Brenden Aaronson (USA)
Leeds United midfielder Brenden Aaronson is firmly on the radar for USMNT fans this season as interest grows as we approach the FIFA World Cup 2026—a tournament already generating plenty of World Cup news and early discussions about who will win the World Cup. With the United States placed alongside Australia, Paraguay, and one of Türkiye, Romania, Slovakia, or Kosovo in Group D next year, Aaronson's club form will be watched closely.
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Aston Villa has a 53.8% win probability on Saturday, Leeds has a 22.7% win probability, and there is a 23.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Aston Villa vs. Leeds insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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