Andrey Rublev vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026

Andrey Rublev will square off with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the round of 32 at the ATP Rome event on Monday.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Andrey Rublev as the most likely winner of the Rublev vs. Davidovich Fokina match.

This article offers a closer look at Monday's match, including best bets and picks.

Rublev vs. Davidovich Fokina prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's Rublev-Davidovich Fokina men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Rublev a 57% chance of winning against Davidovich Fokina at the ATP Italian Open tournament.

Additionally, Rublev has a 56% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Rublev (-1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the **over/under of 22.5 games has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.

Andrey Rublev vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Rublev	Davidovich Fokina
Moneyline	-152	+130
First Set	-152	+120
Game Spread	-1.5 (-145)	+1.5 (-110)
Total Games	o22.5 (-115)	u22.5 (-112)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Rublev vs. Davidovich Fokina picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Davidovich Fokina	+130
First Set	Davidovich Fokina	-112

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win.

Although Davidovich Fokina is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Rublev vs. Davidovich Fokina updates and essential details

The ATP Italian Open match between Andrey Rublev and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is scheduled to start on Monday at 5:00 AM ET.

• Who: Andrey Rublev vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
• Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
• Approx. Time: 5:00 AM ET/2:00AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Andrey Rublev, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at the ATP Italian Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.