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Andrea Pellegrino vs. Luca Nardi prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Pellegrino vs Nardi predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Andrea Pellegrino will face Luca Nardi in the round of 128 at the ATP Rome event on Thursday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Andrea Pellegrino as the most likely winner of the Pellegrino vs. Nardi match.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Pellegrino vs. Nardi prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Pellegrino-Nardi men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives Pellegrino a 58% chance of defeating Nardi at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Pellegrino has a 57% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Nardi (+2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the **over/under of 22.5 games has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.
Andrea Pellegrino vs. Luca Nardi odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Pellegrino | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -155 | +132 |
| First Set | -152 | +120 |
| Game Spread | -2.5 (-110) | +2.5 (-120) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-112) | u22.5 (-116) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pellegrino vs. Nardi picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nardi | +132 |
| First Set | Nardi | -112 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Luca Nardi to win.
Although Nardi is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Pellegrino vs. Nardi updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Andrea Pellegrino and Luca Nardi is scheduled to start on Thursday at 2:10 PM ET.
- Who: Andrea Pellegrino vs. Luca Nardi
- Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
- Approx. Time: 2:10 PM ET/11:10AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Andrea Pellegrino, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat Luca Nardi at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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