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Alexei Popyrin vs. Matteo Berrettini prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Popyrin vs Berrettini predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Alexei Popyrin will take on Matteo Berrettini in the round of 128 at the ATP Rome event on Wednesday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Matteo Berrettini as the most likely winner of the Popyrin vs. Berrettini match.
This article offers further insights into Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Popyrin vs. Berrettini prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's Popyrin-Berrettini men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives Berrettini a 66% chance of winning against Popyrin at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Berrettini has a 61% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Popyrin (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the **over/under of 22.5 games has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.
Alexei Popyrin vs. Matteo Berrettini odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Popyrin | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +195 | -227 |
| First Set | +150 | -189 |
| Game Spread | +3.5 (-130) | -3.5 (-104) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-116) | u22.5 (-116) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Popyrin vs. Berrettini picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Popyrin | +195 |
| First Set | Berrettini | -116 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Alexei Popyrin to win.
Although Popyrin is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Popyrin vs. Berrettini updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Alexei Popyrin and Matteo Berrettini is scheduled to start on Wednesday at 5:00 AM ET.
- Who: Alexei Popyrin vs. Matteo Berrettini
- Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2026
- Approx. Time: 5:00 AM ET/2:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Matteo Berrettini, with a 66% win probability, will likely beat Alexei Popyrin at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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