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Read Article Alexei Popyrin vs. Martin Damm prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get Popyrin vs Damm predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Alexei Popyrin will face Martin Damm in the round of 128 at the ATP Madrid event on Thursday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Alexei Popyrin as the most likely winner of the Popyrin vs. Damm match.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Popyrin vs. Damm prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Popyrin-Damm men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives Popyrin a 64% chance of defeating Damm at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Popyrin has a 62% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Popyrin (-2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 25.5 games has a 58% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Alexei Popyrin vs. Martin Damm odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Popyrin | Damm |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -205 | +162 |
| First Set | -189 | +150 |
| Game Spread | -2.5 (-112) | +2.5 (-118) |
| Total Games | o25.5 (-105) | u25.5 (-135) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Popyrin vs. Damm picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Damm | +162 |
| First Set | Damm | -135 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 25.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Popyrin vs. Damm updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Alexei Popyrin and Martin Damm is scheduled to begin on Thursday at 7:00 AM ET.
- Who: Alexei Popyrin vs. Martin Damm
- Date: Thursday, April 23, 2026
- Approx. Time: 7:00 AM ET/4:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Alexei Popyrin, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat Martin Damm at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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