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Alexei Popyrin vs. Jakub Mensik prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Popyrin vs Mensik predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Alexei Popyrin and Jakub Mensik will lock horns in the round of 64 of the ATP Italian Open event on Saturday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Jakub Mensik as the most likely winner of the Popyrin vs. Mensik match.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Popyrin vs. Mensik prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's Popyrin-Mensik men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Mensik a 67% chance of beating Popyrin at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Mensik has a 62% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Popyrin (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 52% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Alexei Popyrin vs. Jakub Mensik odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Popyrin | Mensik |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +220 | -241 |
| First Set | +175 | -227 |
| Game Spread | +3.5 (-120) | -3.5 (-110) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-105) | u22.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Popyrin vs. Mensik picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Popyrin | +220 |
| First Set | Mensik | -118 |
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Alexei Popyrin to win.
Although Popyrin is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Popyrin vs. Mensik updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Alexei Popyrin and Jakub Mensik is scheduled to start on Saturday at 3:05 PM ET.
- Who: Alexei Popyrin vs. Jakub Mensik
- Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
- Approx. Time: 3:05 PM ET/12:05PM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Jakub Mensik, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat Alexei Popyrin at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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