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Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs. Grigor Dimitrov prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Vallejo vs Dimitrov predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo will take on Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 128 at the ATP Madrid event on Thursday.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Adolfo Vallejo as the most likely winner of the Vallejo vs. Dimitrov match.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Vallejo vs. Dimitrov prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Vallejo-Dimitrov men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives Vallejo a 52% chance of defeating Dimitrov at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Vallejo has a 53% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Dimitrov (+1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 22.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs. Grigor Dimitrov odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Vallejo | Dimitrov |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -115 | +100 |
| First Set | +100 | -125 |
| Game Spread | -1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-145) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-118) | u22.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Vallejo vs. Dimitrov picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vallejo | -115 |
| First Set | Dimitrov | -118 |
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is over 22.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Vallejo vs. Dimitrov updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Adolfo Daniel Vallejo and Grigor Dimitrov is scheduled to start on Thursday at 4:00 AM ET.
- Who: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs. Grigor Dimitrov
- Date: Thursday, April 23, 2026
- Approx. Time: 4:00 AM ET/1:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Adolfo Vallejo, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat Grigor Dimitrov at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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