The Oklahoma City Thunder’s season was on life support in the dying stages of Game 3 against the Houston Rockets, but a late surge forced the game to OT. From there, the Thunder piled on the points to prevent the Rockets from securing an almost unassailable 3-0 lead.
Now there’s everything to play for in the fourth game of this saga, where a repeat from OKC will level the series. The Rockets do still have the upper hand but will need a better shooting performance than Game 3 in which they shot only 30% from deep.
Will Harden get it going again, or will the Thunder even it up? Game 4 Bet Hub predictions below 👇
Dimers' predictions are based on 10,000 simulations of this particular matchup
Dimers' Suggested Plays
🔥BEST: Rockets ML (-148*)
💪Spread: Rockets to cover -3.5
👆Over/Under: o219.5 Total Points
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BEST: Money Line
Rockets H2H has a 60% probability
The Rockets started the series as dogs but have shown over the course of the first three games they are the better team in this matchup.
Houston did let Game 3 slip, however, leading by double digits during stages of the match, with bad shooting and bad turnovers letting the Thunder back into it.
Our predictive analytics model suggests the Rockets will be more careful with the ball in this one and make sure of the win. Look for Harden to take control and take the money line here.
Rockets -3.5 is a 51% chance to cover
This series has been a game of decisive scoring runs and we saw that again in Game 3 when the Thunder were able to rally back from a large deficit to force it into OT.
We’re predicting a similar back-and-forth tussle in this one with our model suggesting a 111-109 win to the Rockets, meaning we're going to take them at the -3.5 spread.
o219.5 has a 51% probability
It wouldn’t be a game involving James Harden if the Over wasn’t the play. The Beard is having another historic season of scoring and he is averaging 32 points a contest in this series and the over total has hit in two of those games.
Usually, we see points total lines for Houston games set in the 230s. Take advantage of the sportsbooks giving us 219.5 here and grab the Over.
The Thunder have been gallant but ultimately outclassed in this series. Had it not been for Houston’s carelessness they would be up 3-0. It’ll be a tight game today but ultimately the Rockets won’t make the same mistakes as they did in Game 3. If you're interested in opening an online sportsbook account you can review all of your options here.
*odds are correct at time of publishing