Heat vs. Pacers Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Heat vs. Pacers NBA game on March 29, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
Heat
118
135
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Pacers
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 36 | 39 | 32 | 11 | 118 |
Pacers | 34 | 45 | 29 | 27 | 135 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
- Heat
- Pacers
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 36 | 39 | 32 | 11 | 118 |
Pacers | 34 | 45 | 29 | 27 | 135 |
Q4 00:14 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:22 Pacers makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:00 Pacers misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:17 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:24 Pacers misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:45 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:04 Pacers makes three point jump shot
Q4 2:28 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:36 Pacers makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:50 Heat makes two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
- End of 4th Quarter.
- Andrew Nembhard defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot118-135
- Heat violation
- Pacers personal foul
- Davion Mitchell misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Heat offensive rebound
- +1Davion Mitchell makes regular free throw 2 of 2118-133
- Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- Pacers defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Pacers misses two point jump shot
- Jay Huff defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Heat 60 second timeout
- +3Pacers makes three point jump shot117-133
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot117-130
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot117-128
- Heat personal foul
- +1Pascal Siakam makes regular free throw 1 of 2115-127
- +1Pascal Siakam makes regular free throw 2 of 2115-128
- Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot115-126
- Heat personal foul
- Heat personal foul
- +1Andrew Nembhard makes technical free throw 1 of 1115-124
- Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- Pacers misses two point jump shot
- Pacers offensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Heat personal foul
- Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Kobe Brown, Jay Huff, Andrew Nembhard, Ben Sheppard)
- Ben Sheppard defensive rebound
- Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Andrew Nembhard misses three point pullup jump shot
- Jay Huff defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Heat 60 second timeout
- Pacers lineup change (Jalen Slawson, Kobe Brown, Jay Huff, Andrew Nembhard, Ben Sheppard)
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot115-123
- Pacers defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo)
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Pacers misses two point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot115-121
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot113-121
- Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- Pascal Siakam offensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Heat personal foul
- +1Pascal Siakam makes regular free throw 1 of 2113-118
- Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Jalen Slawson, Jay Huff, Andrew Nembhard, Ben Sheppard)
- +1Pascal Siakam makes regular free throw 2 of 2113-119
- Jay Huff defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Pacers misses two point jump shot
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot113-117
- T.J. McConnell defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot113-115
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot111-115
- Heat 60 second timeout
- Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Jalen Slawson, T.J. McConnell, Jay Huff, Ben Sheppard)
- Jay Huff defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +3Pacers makes three point jump shot111-113
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot111-110
- Pacers turnover
- Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot109-110
- Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- Pacers misses two point jump shot
- Pascal Siakam offensive rebound
- Pacers misses two point jump shot
- Pacers defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- Kobe Brown defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot107-110
- Heat turnover
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
- Pacers misses two point jump shot
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Heat offensive rebound
- End of 3rd Quarter.
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Kobe Brown, T.J. McConnell, Jay Huff, Ben Sheppard)
- +3Pacers makes three point jump shot107-108
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot107-105
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot104-105
- T.J. McConnell defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Tyler Herro defensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot104-103
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Heat 60 second timeout
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Tyler Herro, Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- +3Pacers makes three point jump shot102-103
- Jay Huff defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot102-100
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot102-98
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot100-98
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot100-96
- Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
- Pacers misses two point jump shot
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot97-96
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot94-96
- Heat personal foul
- Kobe Brown defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Pacers personal foul
- Pacers lineup change (Kobe Brown, T.J. McConnell, Jay Huff, Obi Toppin, Andrew Nembhard)
- Pacers personal foul
- Andrew Nembhard turnover (offensive foul)
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Micah Potter defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- Obi Toppin defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot94-94
- Pacers offensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Pacers lineup change (Micah Potter, Kobe Brown, T.J. McConnell, Obi Toppin, Andrew Nembhard)
- Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Pacers misses two point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot94-92
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot92-92
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot92-90
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot90-90
- Quenton Jackson defensive rebound
- Heat personal foul
- Pacers 60 second timeout
- Pacers lineup change (Micah Potter, Kobe Brown, Quenton Jackson, Obi Toppin, Andrew Nembhard)
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot90-88
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot90-86
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot87-86
- Pacers 60 second timeout
- Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot87-84
- Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Pacers misses two point jump shot
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Jalen Slawson defensive rebound
- Heat personal foul
- +3Pacers makes three point jump shot84-84
- Kobe Brown offensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot84-81
- Heat offensive rebound
- Pacers personal foul
- Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Jalen Slawson, Kobe Brown, Quenton Jackson, Andrew Nembhard)
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Pacers misses two point jump shot
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot82-81
- Pacers turnover
- Pacers misses two point jump shot
- Pacers offensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Jalen Slawson defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Pacers personal foul
- Tyler Herro defensive rebound
- Pacers misses two point jump shot
- Jalen Slawson defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot79-81
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot77-81
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot77-79
- Pacers personal foul
- Pacers misses two point jump shot
- Pacers offensive rebound
- End of 1st Half.
- Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo)
- Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Micah Potter, Jalen Slawson, Quenton Jackson, Andrew Nembhard)
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot (Tyler Herro assists)75-79
- +3Pacers makes three point jump shot72-79
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Pacers lineup change (Ethan Thompson, Pascal Siakam, Micah Potter, Kobe Brown, Andrew Nembhard)
- Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot72-76
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot70-76
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot70-74
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot68-74
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- Pacers 60 second timeout
- Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot66-74
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Pacers misses two point jump shot
- Micah Potter defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot64-74
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot64-72
- +3Pacers makes three point jump shot62-72
- Ben Sheppard defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot62-69
- Heat personal foul
- Pascal Siakam misses regular free throw 1 of 1
- Pacers personal foul
- +1Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 1 of 261-67
- +1Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 2 of 262-67
- Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Micah Potter, Kobe Brown, Andrew Nembhard, Ben Sheppard)
- Pacers turnover
- Quenton Jackson defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Heat personal foul
- +1Micah Potter makes regular free throw 1 of 260-66
- +1Micah Potter makes regular free throw 2 of 260-67
- Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
- Pacers personal foul
- +1Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 260-65
- Bam Adebayo misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Micah Potter, Kobe Brown, Quenton Jackson, Andrew Nembhard)
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot59-65
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot59-63
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot57-63
- Heat turnover
- Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- Quenton Jackson defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot57-61
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot57-59
- Pacers turnover
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot55-59
- Heat 60 second timeout
- Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Micah Potter, Quenton Jackson, Obi Toppin, Andrew Nembhard)
- Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo)
- +3Pacers makes three point jump shot52-59
- Pacers turnover
- Heat turnover
- +3Pacers makes three point jump shot52-56
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot52-53
- Heat violation
- Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Jalen Slawson, Quenton Jackson, Obi Toppin, Andrew Nembhard)
- Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Myron Gardner, Bam Adebayo)
- Heat turnover
- Myron Gardner offensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Pacers misses two point jump shot
- Heat turnover
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot50-52
- Heat personal foul
- +1Obi Toppin makes regular free throw 1 of 150-53
- Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Myron Gardner, Bam Adebayo)
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot50-50
- Pacers 60 second timeout
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Myron Gardner, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis)
- Heat defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Pacers lineup change (Ethan Thompson, Pascal Siakam, Jalen Slawson, Quenton Jackson, Obi Toppin)
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot48-50
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot46-50
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot45-48
- Pacers personal foul
- +1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 146-48
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot43-48
- Heat personal foul
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Pacers defensive rebound
- Heat personal foul
- Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- +3Pacers makes three point jump shot43-46
- Obi Toppin defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- Pacers personal foul
- +1Kasparas Jakucionis makes regular free throw 1 of 242-43
- Pacers lineup change (Ethan Thompson, Pascal Siakam, Kobe Brown, Quenton Jackson, Obi Toppin)
- +1Kasparas Jakucionis makes regular free throw 2 of 243-43
- +3Pacers makes three point jump shot41-43
- Pacers personal foul
- Pelle Larsson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Heat offensive rebound
- +1Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 2 of 241-40
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Pacers turnover
- Kobe Brown defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +3Pacers makes three point jump shot40-40
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot40-37
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot38-36
- Heat personal foul
- +1Kobe Brown makes regular free throw 1 of 138-37
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot38-34
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot36-34
- Instant replay
- End of 1st Quarter.
- Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Kobe Brown, T.J. McConnell, Obi Toppin, Ben Sheppard)
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot33-33
- Heat personal foul
- +1T.J. McConnell makes regular free throw 1 of 133-34
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot33-31
- Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
- Pacers turnover
- Jump ball. (Quenton Jackson gains possession)
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. turnover (lost ball)
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Pacers lineup change (Micah Potter, Kobe Brown, Quenton Jackson, T.J. McConnell, Ben Sheppard)
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot31-31
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot31-29
- Tyler Herro offensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot29-29
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot26-29
- Micah Potter defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +3Pacers makes three point jump shot26-27
- Micah Potter defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
- Pacers misses two point jump shot
- Micah Potter defensive rebound
- Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
- Pacers personal foul
- +1Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 1 of 226-24
- Simone Fontecchio misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +3Pacers makes three point jump shot25-24
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot25-21
- Heat 60 second timeout
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- +3Pacers makes three point jump shot22-21
- Andrew Nembhard defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +3Pacers makes three point jump shot22-18
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot22-15
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot20-15
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot20-13
- +3Pacers makes three point jump shot17-13
- Pacers personal foul
- +1Andrew Wiggins makes regular free throw 1 of 216-10
- Pacers lineup change (Micah Potter, Kobe Brown, T.J. McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, Ben Sheppard)
- +1Andrew Wiggins makes regular free throw 2 of 217-10
- +3Pacers makes three point jump shot15-10
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot15-7
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot13-7
- Andrew Nembhard defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Pacers turnover
- Heat personal foul
- Pacers 60 second timeout
- Pacers lineup change (Ethan Thompson, Micah Potter, Kobe Brown, Quenton Jackson, Andrew Nembhard)
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot13-5
- Pacers turnover
- Heat personal foul
- Pelle Larsson turnover (offensive foul)
- Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- Jalen Slawson defensive rebound
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot11-5
- Pacers personal foul
- Pelle Larsson misses regular free throw 1 of 1
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot9-5
- Quenton Jackson defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot9-3
- Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
- Pacers misses two point jump shot
- Pacers personal foul
- +1Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 26-3
- +1Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 27-3
- Pacers lineup change (Ethan Thompson, Micah Potter, Jalen Slawson, Quenton Jackson, Andrew Nembhard)
- Pacers turnover
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot5-3
- Pacers personal foul
- Pacers personal foul
- Pascal Siakam turnover (offensive foul)
- Heat personal foul
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot2-3
- Pacers turnover
- Heat turnover
- Heat personal foul
- Pascal Siakam misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Pacers offensive rebound
- +1Pascal Siakam makes regular free throw 2 of 20-3
- Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +2Pacers makes two point jump shot0-2
- Ethan Thompson defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Pacers misses three point jump shot
- Jalen Slawson (Quenton Jackson gains possession)
- Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
Heat vs. Pacers: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Heat vs. Pacers
- Date: Sunday, March 29, 2026
- Time: 5:00 PM ET
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Heat favored at -8.5
- Total (Over/Under): 258.5
- Moneyline Odds: Heat 76¢, Pacers 23¢
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Heat: 74%
- Pacers: 26%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Heat 126-118 Pacers.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Heat a win probability of 74%, while the Pacers have a win probability of 26%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Heat are more likely to beat the Pacers in the NBA game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Heat vs. Pacers predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
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