Hawks vs. Bucks Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Hawks vs. Bucks NBA game on March 4, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
Hawks
131
113
Fiserv Forum
Bucks
Fiserv Forum
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hawks | 25 | 41 | 32 | 31 | 131 |
Bucks | 38 | 33 | 18 | 20 | 113 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
- Hawks
- Bucks
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hawks | 25 | 41 | 32 | 31 | 131 |
Bucks | 38 | 33 | 18 | 20 | 113 |
Q4 00:21 Gary Trent Jr. misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:29 Bucks misses two point jump shot
Q4 00:44 Hawks misses two point jump shot
Q4 00:50 Bucks misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:40 Bucks makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:00 Bucks makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:11 Hawks makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:27 Hawks makes three point jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)
Q4 2:40 Bucks makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:48 Hawks makes two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
- End of 4th Quarter.
- Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound
- Gary Trent Jr. misses three point jump shot
- Andre Jackson Jr. offensive rebound
- Bucks misses two point jump shot
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Bucks defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Christian Koloko defensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- Hawks turnover
- Bucks turnover (Zaccharie Risacher steals)
- Hawks turnover (Thanasis Antetokounmpo steals)
- +1Cam Thomas makes regular free throw 2 of 2125-105
- Hawks personal foul
- +1Cam Thomas makes regular free throw 1 of 2128-106
- Hawks lineup change (Mouhamed Gueye, Christian Koloko, Caleb Houstan, CJ McCollum, Zaccharie Risacher)
- Jalen Johnson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Bucks personal foul
- +1Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2125-105
- Bucks lineup change (Andre Jackson Jr., Cam Thomas, Gary Trent Jr., Pete Nance, Thanasis Antetokounmpo)
- Hawks lineup change (Christian Koloko, Caleb Houstan, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, Keaton Wallace)
- Hawks offensive rebound
- +2Bucks makes two point jump shot129-109
- Hawks turnover
- +2Bucks makes two point jump shot129-109
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot129-109
- Bucks turnover
- Bucks 60 second timeout
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)125-105
- Bucks lineup change (Kyle Kuzma, Cam Thomas, Ryan Rollins, Ousmane Dieng, Bobby Portis)
- +2Bucks makes two point jump shot128-106
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot125-105
- Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot115-99
- +2Bucks makes two point jump shot115-99
- Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound
- Bucks misses two point jump shot
- Ryan Rollins offensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- Dyson Daniels offensive rebound
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot115-99
- Bucks 60 second timeout
- Bucks personal foul
- Jalen Johnson misses technical free throw 1 of 1
- Bucks defensive rebound
- Bucks lineup change (Kyle Kuzma, Ryan Rollins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ousmane Dieng, Bobby Portis)
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot114-98
- Bucks personal foul
- Bucks lineup change (Kyle Kuzma, Ryan Rollins, Myles Turner, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ousmane Dieng)
- Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot115-99
- +1Ryan Rollins makes regular free throw 2 of 2114-98
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker shooting foul (Ryan Rollins draws the foul)
- +1Ryan Rollins makes regular free throw 1 of 2114-98
- Bucks personal foul (Jalen Johnson draws the foul)
- +1Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 3114-98
- +1Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 3114-98
- Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu, CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson)
- +1Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 3 of 3115-99
- Hawks personal foul
- Hawks turnover
- Ryan Rollins misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- +1Ryan Rollins makes regular free throw 2 of 2115-99
- Bucks offensive rebound
- +2Bucks makes two point jump shot114-98
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)112-98
- Bucks 60 second timeout
- Bucks turnover
- Jump ball. (Ousmane Dieng gains possession)
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot110-98
- Bucks misses two point jump shot
- Hawks defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Myles Turner, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ousmane Dieng, AJ Green)
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot108-97
- Giannis Antetokounmpo misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Hawks personal foul
- Bucks offensive rebound
- +1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 2 of 2106-97
- Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ousmane Dieng, AJ Green, Jericho Sims)
- Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu, Corey Kispert, Jalen Johnson)
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot (Corey Kispert assists)106-97
- Corey Kispert defensive rebound
- Bucks misses two point jump shot
- Hawks personal foul
- Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Hawks defensive rebound
- Bucks misses two point jump shot
- Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- +2Bucks makes two point jump shot104-97
- Hawks 60 second timeout
- Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jock Landale, Corey Kispert, Jalen Johnson)
- Bucks lineup change (Cam Thomas, Ryan Rollins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jericho Sims, Bobby Portis)
- Cam Thomas defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- +2Cam Thomas makes two point jump shot104-95
- +3CJ McCollum makes three point jump shot104-95
- Hawks personal foul
- +1Cam Thomas makes regular free throw 1 of 2101-92
- +1Cam Thomas makes regular free throw 2 of 2101-93
- Hawks personal foul
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot101-91
- +2Bucks makes two point jump shot98-91
- Bobby Portis defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Bucks personal foul
- Instant replay
- Bucks personal foul
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Hawks offensive rebound
- End of 3rd Quarter.
- Hawks lineup change (Mouhamed Gueye, Jock Landale, CJ McCollum, Corey Kispert, Zaccharie Risacher)
- +3Bucks makes three point jump shot98-89
- Jericho Sims offensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot98-86
- Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound
- Hawks personal foul
- +1Kyle Kuzma makes regular free throw 1 of 294-86
- Kyle Kuzma misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- Hawks turnover
- Jock Landale offensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Mouhamed Gueye offensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Bucks violation
- +2Bucks makes two point jump shot94-85
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot95-83
- +2Bucks makes two point jump shot92-83
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot92-81
- Bucks personal foul
- Cam Thomas turnover
- Hawks offensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Hawks lineup change (Mouhamed Gueye, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jock Landale, CJ McCollum, Zaccharie Risacher)
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Bobby Portis turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
- +3Bucks makes three point jump shot89-81
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Bucks defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Hawks offensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Bucks lineup change (Kyle Kuzma, Cam Thomas, Pete Nance, Jericho Sims, Bobby Portis)
- Hawks lineup change (Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jock Landale, Corey Kispert, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson)
- Bucks turnover
- Jericho Sims defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- +2Bucks makes two point jump shot89-78
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot89-76
- Bucks personal foul
- Jericho Sims turnover (offensive foul)
- Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Jock Landale, Corey Kispert, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson)
- Jericho Sims defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Bucks turnover
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot86-76
- Bucks 60 second timeout
- Bucks lineup change (Kyle Kuzma, Ryan Rollins, AJ Green, Jericho Sims, Bobby Portis)
- Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- Jericho Sims offensive rebound
- Bucks misses two point jump shot
- Ousmane Dieng offensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot83-76
- Bucks personal foul
- Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Ousmane Dieng, AJ Green, Jericho Sims, Bobby Portis)
- +2Bucks makes two point jump shot81-75
- Hawks personal foul
- Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Corey Kispert, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson)
- +1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 1 of 181-76
- Bobby Portis defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Bucks turnover
- Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ousmane Dieng, AJ Green, Bobby Portis)
- Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
- Bucks misses two point jump shot
- Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound
- Onyeka Okongwu misses two point driving floating jump shot
- Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot81-73
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- Bucks personal foul
- +1CJ McCollum makes regular free throw 1 of 277-73
- +1CJ McCollum makes regular free throw 2 of 278-73
- +2Bucks makes two point jump shot76-73
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot76-71
- Bucks 60 second timeout
- Bucks turnover
- AJ Green offensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- Myles Turner offensive rebound
- Hawks personal foul
- Bucks offensive rebound
- Giannis Antetokounmpo misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Giannis Antetokounmpo misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- Bucks personal foul
- +1CJ McCollum makes regular free throw 1 of 272-71
- +1CJ McCollum makes regular free throw 2 of 273-71
- Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
- Bucks misses two point jump shot
- Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- Myles Turner defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Dyson Daniels offensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot71-71
- Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- Hawks personal foul
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot69-71
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- Hawks defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Myles Turner defensive rebound
- End of 1st Half.
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- +3Bucks makes three point jump shot66-71
- Hawks personal foul
- Hawks turnover
- +3Bucks makes three point jump shot66-68
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot65-65
- Bucks personal foul
- +1Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 166-65
- Bucks turnover
- Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Hawks personal foul
- +1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 1 of 263-64
- +1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 2 of 263-65
- Bucks misses two point jump shot
- Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
- Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu, CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson)
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Dyson Daniels offensive rebound
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot63-63
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Bucks turnover
- Ousmane Dieng offensive rebound
- Bucks misses two point jump shot
- Ousmane Dieng offensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot61-63
- +2Bucks makes two point jump shot59-63
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot59-61
- +2Bucks makes two point jump shot57-61
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot57-59
- +3Bucks makes three point jump shot54-59
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot54-56
- Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot52-56
- Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- Hawks personal foul
- Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Myles Turner, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ousmane Dieng, AJ Green)
- Jericho Sims offensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- +2Bucks makes two point jump shot50-56
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot50-54
- +3Bucks makes three point jump shot47-54
- Hawks 60 second timeout
- Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu, Corey Kispert, Jalen Johnson)
- Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ousmane Dieng, Jericho Sims, Bobby Portis)
- Hawks turnover
- +2Bucks makes two point jump shot47-51
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot47-49
- Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
- Bucks misses two point jump shot
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot44-49
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Jock Landale offensive rebound
- Bucks personal foul
- +2Jericho Sims makes two point tip layup41-49
- Bucks lineup change (Kyle Kuzma, Ryan Rollins, Pete Nance, Jericho Sims, Bobby Portis)
- Hawks lineup change (Mouhamed Gueye, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jock Landale, CJ McCollum, Corey Kispert)
- Bucks lineup change (Kyle Kuzma, Ryan Rollins, Pete Nance, Jericho Sims, Bobby Portis)
- Jericho Sims offensive rebound
- Bucks misses two point jump shot
- Jericho Sims offensive rebound
- Bucks misses two point jump shot
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot41-47
- CJ McCollum defensive rebound
- Bucks misses three point jump shot
- Jericho Sims defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- +2Bucks makes two point jump shot38-47
- Bucks 60 second timeout
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
Hawks vs. Bucks: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Hawks vs. Bucks
- Date: Wednesday, March 4, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Fiserv Forum
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Bucks favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 232.5
- Moneyline Odds: Hawks -104, Bucks -112
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Hawks: 41%
- Bucks: 59%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Hawks 114-117 Bucks.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Hawks a win probability of 41%, while the Bucks have a win probability of 59%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Bucks are more likely to beat the Hawks in the NBA game at Fiserv Forum on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Hawks vs. Bucks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
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