Toluca vs. Queretaro Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Queretaro Liga MX match on August 21, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
LIGA MX
FINAL
LMX sport icon
LIGA MX
Toluca
2
1
Estadio La Corregidora
Queretaro
Estadio La Corregidora
QueretaroQUT
Score Summary
TolucaTOL
S. Homenchenko (79')
Soccer ball icon
D. Barbosa (31')
Red Card icon
Helinho (65')
Soccer ball icon
F. Vinas (pen.) (90')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Queretaro
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Toluca
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    S. Homenchenko (Queretaro) cautioned
  2. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by F. Vinas (pen.)
    2-1
  3. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Queretaro: E. Perez replaces D. Parra
  4. 85'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: V. Guzman replaces Bruno Mendez
  5. 81'
    Yellow Card
    I. Benito (Queretaro) cautioned
  6. 79'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Queretaro by S. Homenchenko, assisted by D. Parra
    1-1
  7. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Luan replaces Helinho
  8. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: J. Diaz Price replaces J. Angulo
  9. 74'
    Yellow Card
    N. Castro (Toluca) cautioned
  10. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Queretaro: W. Madrid replaces B. Duarte
  11. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Queretaro: J. Martinez replaces C. Garcia
  12. 65'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by Helinho
    1-0
  13. 58'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Queretaro: I. Benito replaces Paulo Victor
  14. 58'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Queretaro: M. Coronel replaces A. Alcala
  15. 55'
    Yellow Card
    A. Avila (Queretaro) cautioned
  16. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: N. Castro replaces A. Vega
  17. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: B. A. Garcia Caprizo replaces F. Arce
  18. 45'
    Yellow Card
    A. Mohamed (Toluca) cautioned
  19. 45'
    Yellow Card
    F. Arce (Toluca) cautioned
  20. 45'
    Penalty missed by A. Avila for Queretaro
  21. 31'
    Red Card
    D. Barbosa (Toluca) sent off with a straight red card
  22. 19'
    Yellow Card
    A. Vega (Toluca) cautioned

Toluca vs. Queretaro: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Toluca vs. Queretaro
  • Date: Friday, August 21, 2026
  • Time: 11:10 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio La Corregidora

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toluca +100, Queretaro +290, draw +280
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-154/+132)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Toluca: 55.3%
  • Queretaro: 22.7%
  • Draw: 22.1%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toluca 1-1 Queretaro (10.2%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Toluca vs. Queretaro? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 55.3%.

The most likely correct score is Toluca 1-1 Queretaro.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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