Necaxa vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Necaxa vs. Toluca Liga MX match on August 2, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Necaxa
1
3
Toluca
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
NecaxaNEC
I. Lopez (29')
Soccer ball icon
E. del Villar (45')
Soccer ball icon
L. Jimenez (o.g.) (57')
Soccer ball icon
J. Carranza (42')
Soccer ball icon
J. Carranza (45')
Red Card icon
A. Oliveros (80')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toluca
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Necaxa
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: A. Briseno replaces A. Vega
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    F. Romero (Toluca) cautioned
  3. 90'
    Yellow Card
    J. Valencia (Necaxa) cautioned
  4. 85'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Necaxa: F. Mendez replaces D. Leyva
  5. 80'
    Red Card
    A. Oliveros (Necaxa) sent off for a second yellow card
  6. 67'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Necaxa: M. Espindola replaces L. Faravelli
  7. 65'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Helinho replaces E. Gutierrez
  8. 65'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: P. Perez replaces J. Angulo
  9. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: V. Guzman replaces J. Diaz Price
  10. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: F. Vinas replaces I. Lopez
  11. 57'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by L. Jimenez (o.g.)
    1-3
  12. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Necaxa: P. Pedraza replaces J. P. Torres Patino
  13. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Necaxa: M. Zaleta replaces C. Vargas
  14. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Necaxa: J. Valencia replaces J. Ruiz
  15. 45'
    Yellow Card
    R. Martinez (Necaxa) cautioned
  16. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by E. del Villar, assisted by I. Lopez
    1-2
  17. 45'
    Red Card
    J. Carranza (Necaxa) sent off with a straight red card
  18. 45'
    Yellow Card
    A. Oliveros (Necaxa) cautioned
  19. 42'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Necaxa by J. Carranza, assisted by A. Pena
    1-1
  20. 29'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by I. Lopez, assisted by J. Gallardo
    0-1

Necaxa vs. Toluca: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Necaxa vs. Toluca
  • Date: Sunday, August 2, 2026
  • Time: 9:10 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Necaxa +525, Toluca -200, draw +375
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-200/+150)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Necaxa: 15.2%
  • Toluca: 67.1%
  • Draw: 17.7%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Necaxa 1-2 Toluca (9.5%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Necaxa vs. Toluca? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 67.1%.

The most likely correct score is Necaxa 1-2 Toluca.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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