San Luis vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the San Luis vs. Toluca Liga MX match on April 12, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
FINAL
LIGA MX
Add this game to My Favorites
FINAL
Add this game to My Favorites
LMX sport icon
LIGA MX
San Luis
1
:
1
Apr 12, 9:00 PM ET
Toluca
Apr 12, 9:00 PM ET
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
San LuisASL
F. Rossi (72')
Soccer ball icon
Joao Pedro Galvao (pen.) (90')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toluca
    0.0%
  • Draw
    100.0%
  • San Luis
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Yellow Card
P. Perez (Toluca) cautioned
90'
Yellow Card
A. Cruz (Atl. San Luis) cautioned
90'
Yellow Card
S. Simon (Toluca) cautioned
90'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Atl. San Luis by Joao Pedro Galvao (pen.)
1-1
83'
Substitution
Substitution for Atl. San Luis: S. Munoz replaces O. Macias
73'
Substitution
Substitution for Atl. San Luis: M. Garcia replaces R. Meraz
73'
Substitution
Substitution for Atl. San Luis: D. Rodriguez replaces J. Medina
73'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: F. Romero replaces F. Rossi
72'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Toluca by F. Rossi
0-1
63'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: N. Castro replaces S. Cordova
58'
Substitution
Substitution for Atl. San Luis: A. Duarte replaces L. Flores
46'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: J. Diaz replaces V. Arteaga
46'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: E. del Villar replaces Luan
46'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: S. Simon replaces D. Barbosa
33'
Yellow Card
Luan (Toluca) cautioned

Featured offers

Swipe iconSwipe across to view more offers
logo
RECOMMENDED
Deposit $10, Get a $20 Trading Bonus!
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
FEATURED
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonus Bets *Paid Within 14 Days
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
NEW PLAYERS
Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins!
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
TRENDING
Bet $10 Get $150 in Bonus Bets
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
NEW
Trade $10, Get $20 with Code DIMERS
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
HOTTEST
$1,000 First Bet Reset Paid in Bonus Bets!
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
NEW PLAYERS
Get $350 in Bonus Bets Guaranteed - When You Bet $5 for 7 Days!
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
LIMITED-TIME
Register with code DIMERS150 to unlock $150 in bonus bets by winning your first $10 bet
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
RECOMMENDED
Double Your Winnings on your Next 10 Wagers. Up to $25 Max Bet Per Boost
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
RECOMMENDED
Code DIMERS: Trade $10, Get $10
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
NEW PLAYERS
Get Up To $250 Back in Bonus Bets If Your First Bet Loses
T&Cs apply.
How to claim

San Luis vs. Toluca: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: San Luis vs. Toluca
  • Date: Sunday, April 12, 2026
  • Time: 9:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: San Luis +470, Toluca -170, draw +333
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-150/+123)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • San Luis: 11.4%
  • Toluca: 72.8%
  • Draw: 15.8%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: San Luis 0-2 Toluca (9.9%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Want Dimers' best bets for this matchup?

The most probable outcome isn't always the wisest wager.

The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

Join Dimers Pro to unlock complete betting analysis for this matchup across every major market, including:

  • Today's best bets
  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

Unlock today's best bets for this match with a free 3-day trial—cancel anytime.

Who will win San Luis vs. Toluca? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 72.8%.

The most likely correct score is San Luis 0-2 Toluca.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

Dimers' predictions and betting insights are designed to help inform your betting decisions. If you're betting on San Luis vs. Toluca, always gamble responsibly and within your means. For support, you can visit our responsible gambling resources.