Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano La Liga match on February 1, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
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LA LIGA
Rayo Vallecano
1
2
Feb 1, 8:00 AM ET
Real Madrid
Feb 1, 8:00 AM ET
Real MadridRMA
Score Summary
Rayo VallecanoRVC
Vinicius Junior (15')
Soccer ball icon
K. Mbappe (pen.) (90')
Soccer ball icon
J. de Frutos (49')
Soccer ball icon
P. Ciss (80')
Red Card icon
P. Chavarria (90')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Real Madrid
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Rayo Vallecano
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Yellow Card
Pacha (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
90'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Real Madrid by K. Mbappe (pen.)
1-2
90'
Red Card
P. Chavarria (Rayo Vallecano) sent off for a second yellow card
84'
Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: C. Martin replaces I. Akhomach
83'
Yellow Card
A. Batalla (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
83'
Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Luiz Felipe replaces I. Palazon
83'
Yellow Card
I. Akhomach (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
83'
Yellow Card
Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid) cautioned
80'
Red Card
P. Ciss (Rayo Vallecano) sent off with a straight red card
77'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: D. Alaba replaces D. Huijsen
77'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: Rodrygo replaces A. Guler
77'
Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Pacha replaces A. Garcia
72'
Yellow Card
O. Valentin (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
69'
Yellow Card
D. Ceballos (Real Madrid) cautioned
65'
Yellow Card
I. Palazon (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
60'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: G. Garcia replaces F. Mastantuono
57'
Yellow Card
P. Chavarria (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
56'
Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: O. Valentin replaces G. Gumbau
56'
Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: P. Diaz replaces J. de Frutos
53'
Yellow Card
G. Gumbau (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
49'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Rayo Vallecano by J. de Frutos, assisted by A. Garcia
1-1
46'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: D. Ceballos replaces R. Asencio
15'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Real Madrid by Vinicius Junior, assisted by B. Diaz
0-1
10'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: B. Diaz replaces J. Bellingham

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Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano
  • Date: Sunday, February 1, 2026
  • Time: 8:00 AM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Real Madrid -325, Rayo Vallecano +1050, draw +550

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Real Madrid: 74.8%
  • Rayo Vallecano: 10.1%
  • Draw: 15.1%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Real Madrid 2-0 Rayo Vallecano (10.4%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Want Dimers' best bets for this matchup?

The most probable outcome isn't always the wisest wager.

The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

Join Dimers Pro to unlock complete betting analysis for this matchup across every major market, including:

  • Today's best bets
  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano? Prediction & correct score

Real Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 74.8%.

The most likely correct score is Real Madrid 2-0 Rayo Vallecano.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

Dimers' predictions and betting insights are designed to help inform your betting decisions. If you're betting on Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano, always gamble responsibly and within your means. For support, you can visit our responsible gambling resources.