Manchester City vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Manchester City vs. Aston Villa Premier League match on May 24, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
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PREMIER LEAGUE
Aston Villa
2
1
May 24, 11:00 AM ET Etihad Stadium
Manchester City
May 24, 11:00 AM ET Etihad Stadium
Manchester CityMNC
Score Summary
Aston VillaVIL
A. Semenyo (23')
Soccer ball icon
O. Watkins (47')
Soccer ball icon
O. Watkins (61')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Manchester City
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Aston Villa
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
VAR: Goal Disallowed - offside
86'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: J. McGinn replaces R. Barkley
82'
Yellow Card
R. Lewis (Manchester City) cautioned
77'
Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: J. Doku replaces T. Reijnders
77'
Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: J. Gvardiol replaces J. Stones
77'
Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: R. Ait-Nouri replaces N. Ake
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Y. Tielemans replaces Douglas Luiz
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: A. Onana replaces L. Bogarde
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: P. Torres replaces V. Lindelof
61'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Aston Villa by O. Watkins, assisted by R. Barkley
2-1
59'
Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: M. Kovacic replaces B. Silva
58'
Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: R. Cherki replaces A. Semenyo
47'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Aston Villa by O. Watkins
1-1
46'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: M. Cash replaces A. Garcia
23'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Manchester City by A. Semenyo
0-1

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Manchester City vs. Aston Villa: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Manchester City vs. Aston Villa
  • Date: Sunday, May 24, 2026
  • Time: 11:00 AM ET
  • Venue: Etihad Stadium

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Manchester City -230, Aston Villa +650, draw +425
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-250/+200)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Manchester City: 70.3%
  • Aston Villa: 12.4%
  • Draw: 17.3%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Manchester City 2-0 Aston Villa (10.6%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Want Dimers' best bets for this matchup?

The most probable outcome isn't always the wisest wager.

The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

Join Dimers Pro to unlock complete betting analysis for this matchup across every major market, including:

  • Today's best bets
  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Manchester City vs. Aston Villa? Prediction & correct score

Manchester City is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 70.3%.

The most likely correct score is Manchester City 2-0 Aston Villa.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

Dimers' predictions and betting insights are designed to help inform your betting decisions. If you're betting on Manchester City vs. Aston Villa, always gamble responsibly and within your means. For support, you can visit our responsible gambling resources.