Liverpool vs. Manchester City prediction, odds, Premier League picks [10/11/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's Premier League match between Liverpool and Manchester City, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently suggests a 35.7% chance of Liverpool winning, a 40.7% chance for Manchester City, and a 23.6% chance of a draw. Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 60.9% chance of going over., with a 62.8% probability that both teams score.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Manchester City +133, Liverpool +212
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-156/+150)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Liverpool @ +212 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -156 via Novig

According to our best Premier League bets, the top play to make on this game is Liverpool to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City (10.6% probability)
• Liverpool 1-2 Manchester City (8.7%)
• Liverpool 2-1 Manchester City (8.1%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 62.8% chance of both sides finding the net and a 37.2% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Sunday's Premier League action between Liverpool and Manchester City at Anfield is scheduled to start in the USA at 11:30 AM ET.

• Who: Liverpool vs. Manchester City
• Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
• Time: 11:30 AM ET/8:30AM PT
• Venue: Anfield

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Liverpool has a 35.7% win probability on Sunday, Manchester City has a 40.7% win probability, and there is a 23.6% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Premier League prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.