Senators vs. Penguins prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 14, 2026

The Ottawa Senators are favored to beat the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena on Saturday (7:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Senators vs. Penguins prediction gives Ottawa a 53.9% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on Penguins as the underdog.

Senators vs. Penguins key predictions

• Senators win probability: 53.9%
• Penguins win probability: 46.1%
• Penguins +1.5 puck line: 67.4% cover probability
• Over 6 goals: 50.4% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Senators vs. Penguins odds

Here are the best available prices across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets we track.

• Senators moneyline: 56¢ (Novig)
• Penguins moneyline: 45¢ (Novig)
• Senators -1.5: 34¢ (Novig)
• Penguins +1.5: 68¢ (Novig)
• Over 6 goals: -125 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Under 6 goals: +102 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Senators vs. Penguins pick: Penguins ML (45¢)

Our model makes the Senators the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the Penguins moneyline at 45¢ on Novig.

Those odds give Penguins an implied win probability of 45.0%, while our model rates it at 46.1%.

That's a 1.1% edge, the biggest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets.

Senators vs. Penguins goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each game 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Tim Stutzle of the Senators leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Saturday's game at 36.6%, ahead of teammate Drake Batherson (34.8%). Pittsburgh's most likely goal-scorer, Sidney Crosby, follows at 31.9%. Stutzle also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 7.6%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

1. Tim Stutzle (Senators): 36.6%
2. Drake Batherson (Senators): 34.8%
3. Sidney Crosby (Penguins): 31.9%
4. Rickard Rakell (Penguins): 30.8%
5. Shane Pinto (Senators): 30.3%

First goal-scorer predictions

1. Tim Stutzle (Senators): 7.6%
2. Rickard Rakell (Penguins): 6.5%
3. Drake Batherson (Senators): 6.5%
4. Sidney Crosby (Penguins): 5.9%
5. Shane Pinto (Senators): 5.6%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available prices to assess potential value.

Get every Senators vs. Penguins prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Senators vs. Penguins predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Senators vs. Penguins game details

• Matchup: Ottawa Senators vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
• Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
• Puck drop: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: PPG Paints Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.