Sabres vs. Stars prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 14, 2026

The Dallas Stars are favored to beat the Buffalo Sabres at American Airlines Center on Saturday (8:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Sabres vs. Stars prediction gives Dallas a 54.6% chance of coming out on top, while the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the under 6.5 goals.

Sabres vs. Stars key predictions

• Stars win probability: 54.6%
• Sabres win probability: 45.4%
• Sabres +1.5 puck line: 67.5% cover probability
• Under 6.5 goals: 56.5% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Sabres vs. Stars odds

These are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets. Novig has the best price in every market for this game.

• Sabres moneyline: 44¢ (Novig)
• Stars moneyline: 57¢ (Novig)
• Sabres +1.5: 66¢ (Novig)
• Stars -1.5: 35¢ (Novig)
• Over 6.5 goals: 48¢ (Novig)
• Under 6.5 goals: 53¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Sabres vs. Stars pick: Under 6.5 (53¢)

Our model makes the Stars the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the under 6.5 total goals at 53¢ on Novig.

Those odds give the under an implied probability of 52.5%, while our model puts it at 56.5%.

That's a 4.0% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets for this matchup.

Sabres vs. Stars goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each game 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Tage Thompson of the Sabres leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Saturday's game at 38.4%, followed by Dallas's Jason Robertson (37.5%). Thompson also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 8.1%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

1. Tage Thompson (Sabres): 38.4%
2. Jason Robertson (Stars): 37.5%
3. Wyatt Johnston (Stars): 32.8%
4. Mikko Rantanen (Stars): 30.3%
5. Roope Hintz (Stars): 25.1%

First goal-scorer predictions

1. Tage Thompson (Sabres): 8.1%
2. Jason Robertson (Stars): 7.8%
3. Wyatt Johnston (Stars): 6.8%
4. Mikko Rantanen (Stars): 5.8%
5. Roope Hintz (Stars): 5.0%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare probabilities with available odds to assess potential value.

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• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Sabres vs. Stars game details

• Matchup: Buffalo Sabres vs. Dallas Stars
• Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
• Puck drop: 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: American Airlines Center

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

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