Oilers vs. Maple Leafs prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 14, 2026

The Edmonton Oilers are favored to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena on Saturday (7:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Oilers vs. Maple Leafs prediction gives Edmonton a 56.9% chance of winning, while the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the under 6.5 goals.

Oilers vs. Maple Leafs key predictions

• Oilers win probability: 56.9%
• Maple Leafs win probability: 43.1%
• Maple Leafs +1.5 puck line: 64.0% cover probability
• Over 6.5 goals: 51.1% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Oilers vs. Maple Leafs odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets.

• Oilers moneyline: 58¢ (Novig)
• Maple Leafs moneyline: +130 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Oilers -1.5: 37¢ (Novig)
• Maple Leafs +1.5: 65¢ (Novig)
• Over 6.5 goals: -120 (theScore Bet)
• Under 6.5 goals: +115 (BetRivers)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Oilers vs. Maple Leafs pick: Under 6.5 (+115)

Our model makes the Oilers the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the under 6.5 total goals at +115 on BetRivers.

Those odds give the under an implied probability of 46.5%, while our model rates it at 48.9%.

That's a 2.4% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets.

Oilers vs. Maple Leafs goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Leon Draisaitl of the Oilers leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Saturday's game at 48.5%, ahead of teammate Connor McDavid (43.6%). Toronto's most likely goal-scorer, Auston Matthews, is further back at 38.9%. Draisaitl also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 10.7%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

1. Leon Draisaitl (Oilers): 48.5%
2. Connor McDavid (Oilers): 43.6%
3. Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs): 38.9%
4. Zach Hyman (Oilers): 36.9%
5. William Nylander (Maple Leafs): 35.8%

First goal-scorer predictions

1. Leon Draisaitl (Oilers): 10.7%
2. Connor McDavid (Oilers): 8.3%
3. Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs): 7.0%
4. William Nylander (Maple Leafs): 6.7%
5. Zach Hyman (Oilers): 6.5%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare probabilities with available odds to find potential value.

Get every Oilers vs. Maple Leafs prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Oilers vs. Maple Leafs predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Oilers vs. Maple Leafs game details

• Matchup: Edmonton Oilers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
• Puck drop: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

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