Red Wings vs. Lightning prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 14, 2026

The Tampa Bay Lightning are favored to beat the Detroit Red Wings at Benchmark International Arena on Saturday (7:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Red Wings vs. Lightning prediction gives Tampa Bay a 64.3% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on Red Wings as the underdog.

Red Wings vs. Lightning key predictions

• Lightning win probability: 64.3%
• Red Wings win probability: 35.7%
• Red Wings +1.5 puck line: 58.3% cover probability
• Over 6 goals: 50.9% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Red Wings vs. Lightning odds

Here are the best available prices across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets.

• Red Wings moneyline: +188 (BetRivers)
• Lightning moneyline: 65¢ (Novig)
• Red Wings +1.5: 58¢ (Novig)
• Lightning -1.5: 44¢ (Novig)
• Over 6 goals: -117 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Under 6 goals: -106 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Red Wings vs. Lightning pick: Red Wings ML (+188)

Our model makes the Lightning the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the Red Wings moneyline at +188 on BetRivers.

Those odds give Red Wings an implied win probability of 34.7%, while our model puts it at 35.7%.

That's a 1.0% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets.

Red Wings vs. Lightning goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each game 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Nikita Kucherov of the Lightning leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Saturday's game at 46.3%, ahead of teammate Jake Guentzel (42.6%). Detroit's most likely goal-scorer, Alex DeBrincat, is further back at 37.1%. Kucherov also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 10.1%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

1. Nikita Kucherov (Lightning): 46.3%
2. Jake Guentzel (Lightning): 42.6%
3. Brandon Hagel (Lightning): 42.0%
4. Alex DeBrincat (Red Wings): 37.1%
5. Viktor Arvidsson (Red Wings): 33.3%

First goal-scorer predictions

1. Nikita Kucherov (Lightning): 10.1%
2. Jake Guentzel (Lightning): 8.9%
3. Brandon Hagel (Lightning): 8.6%
4. Alex DeBrincat (Red Wings): 7.2%
5. Viktor Arvidsson (Red Wings): 6.5%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare probabilities with available odds to find potential value.

Get every Red Wings vs. Lightning prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Red Wings vs. Lightning predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Red Wings vs. Lightning game details

• Matchup: Detroit Red Wings vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
• Puck drop: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.