A public dispute over an AI-assisted mathematical breakthrough has led to a prediction market on whether mathematician Tristan Buckmaster will take legal action against OpenAI or one of its researchers, Sébastien Bubeck.
Prediction market sites
often pay attention to notable tech events such as this one, and Kalshi currently has a market predicting whether Buckmaster will sue either party before January 1, 2027.
The question follows disagreements over research credit, publication arrangements, and whether OpenAI's work may have been influenced by unpublished material submitted through its Codex tool.
What Is the Buckmaster-OpenAI Dispute About?
Buckmaster is a mathematics professor at New York University, who was working with Levent Alpöge (a mathematician employed by Anthropic) on problems involving fluid equations, including the Euler and Navier-Stokes problems.
In September 2026, the pair published several mathematical results after using AI tools, including OpenAI's Codex and Anthropic's Claude. Around the same time, OpenAI announced that its own AI system had produced a proof addressing the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, one of the Clay Mathematics Institute's Millennium Prize Problems.
Buckmaster questioned the timing of OpenAI's research and whether information about his unpublished work had reached the company. He also described discussions with Bubeck about possible publication arrangements. According to Buckmaster, one proposal would have involved him writing up OpenAI's result while leaving Alpöge out because of his role at Anthropic.
Bubeck and OpenAI disputed parts of Buckmaster's account. OpenAI said its researchers and AI agents had not accessed the mathematicians' work before it became public. The company also said its proof differed significantly from their results. Buckmaster has said he does not know whether his data was used and has not established that it influenced OpenAI's work.
What Are Kalshi's Lawsuit Market Probabilities?
Kalshi's contract “Will Tristan Buckmaster Sue OpenAI or Bubeck” tracks whether a lawsuit is filed before January 1, 2027.
As of November 2, the market showed “Yes” contracts priced at $0.15 and “No” contracts at $0.94, with displayed chances of 14% for the market to resolve “Yes”, but these prices can change as traders buy and sell contracts. At the time of writing, the market only has $408 in trading volume, so the implied probability can change drastically in a matter of days.
A Yes outcome requires Buckmaster to sue either OpenAI or Bubeck before the deadline, but the contract does not require him to sue both parties. Public criticism, a statement on social media, or a threat of legal action would not meet the requirement by itself.
What Would Resolve the Kalshi Contract?
The key catalyst would be an actual lawsuit filed by Buckmaster against OpenAI or Bubeck within the market's stated timeframe. If neither party is sued by January 1, 2027, the contract is set to resolve “No” under the listed deadline.
The dispute could continue without a court case. Buckmaster may seek clarification, publish further statements, or pursue an academic resolution instead. The parties could also reach an agreement without litigation.
You can follow more technology-related contracts on Kalshi through its extensive
tech prediction markets
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