Will the US House of Representatives Impeach Trump?

Democrats won back the House on November 3, and Kalshi traders reacted fast. Its market on whether the House will impeach Trump now prices a 63% chance of an impeachment vote passing before January 1, 2028, as of November 6, though almost nothing happens on that board before the new Congress sits.

Where Kalshi's Contracts Stand

Kalshi splits the market into monthly deadlines, so each date is its own contracts.

The near-zero price for this year makes sense, since the current Republican-led House sits until the new Congress is sworn in on January 3, 2027. Chances only cross 50% at the August 2027 deadline, and every 2027 contract was showing a drop of four to nine points on Kalshi's board.

The market has attracted over $6.8 million in trading volume, making it one of the most popular political prediction markets on Kalshi right now. Remember that these are only implied probabilities, and the numbers can change drastically as time goes on.

What the Midterms Changed

CBS News projected Democrats had won the House at 10:29 p.m. ET on election night. Democrats held 214 seats going in, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said the next day his party would win "at least 255 seats, if not more."

Not every race has been called yet. NBC News also projected a Democratic Senate, though conviction at any Senate trial would still need two-thirds of senators, which no Kalshi impeachment contract here depends on.

What Both Sides Are Saying

Democratic leaders have so far downplayed impeachment. "I haven't had a single member of the House Democratic Caucus talk to me about impeachment," Jeffries said on November 4, pointing instead to affordability and accountability.

Rep.-elect Elaine Luria of Virginia, a former January 6 committee member, called impeachment "not our priority," while Colorado Rep.-elect Melat Kiros said, "I'm not convinced that there is a path forward for impeaching the president that would lead to removal."

Trump, for his part, said on November 4 he wasn't worried about being impeached, arguing it would "destroy" the Democratic Party.

How the Contracts Settle

Each contract resolves Yes only if the House passes a resolution impeaching the president after that contract was listed and before its deadline, verified through the Library of Congress. A Senate trial or conviction isn't required. Three earlier deadlines, January, June, and September 2026, have already settled No.

Kalshi keeps removal from office in a separate market, a split worth knowing before trading impeachment contracts on any prediction market sites.

Earlier Impeachment Votes

Rep. Al Green of Texas forced two floor votes in 2025, and both failed. In June, 128 Democrats joined Republicans to table his articles over the Iran strikes. In December, the House tabled another resolution 237 to 140, with 23 Democrats voting alongside 214 Republicans and 47 more voting present.

Those numbers help explain why traders aren't treating a Democratic majority as an automatic impeachment. More congressional contracts tied to the new House sit in the politics predictions section.

A Long Runway to 2028

The market's message is patience. Traders see impeachment as fairly likely by next summer and a bit better than that by the end of 2027, even as Democratic leaders publicly play it down.