A law passed in 1956 to ban onion futures trading is back in the spotlight. Kalshi now lets traders predict whether Congress will repeal the Onion Futures Act by several deadlines, including January 1, 2027.
The market gives traders a way to express their views on a little-known law that has remained in place for nearly 70 years. Currently, Kalshi's estimated chance of a repeal before January 1, 2027 is just 4%. The figure rose to 12% before 2028, 15% before 2029, and 27% before 2030.
What Is the Onion Futures Act?
Congress passed the Onion Futures Act on August 28, 1958, after major swings in onion prices raised concerns about market manipulation.
Futures contracts let traders agree to buy or sell a commodity at a set price on a later date. Farmers and other businesses often use them to protect themselves against price changes, while traders can use them to estimate where prices will go.
In the 1950s, onion traders Vincent Kosuga and Sam Siegel were accused of trying to manipulate the market. Onion prices had swung sharply: a 50-pound bag cost nearly $2 in late 1855, but the March 1956 futures contract fell to just 15 cents on its final trading day.
Congress responded by banning onion futures trading on US exchanges. The ban is still in place today.
What Would a Repeal Mean?
To repeal the law, Congress would need to pass a bill that becomes law. Kalshi's market has a specific condition, however: both the onion futures ban and a separate ban involving futures tied to movie box-office results must be removed.
That means ending only the onion ban would not count as a Yes result on Kalshi. A new law must remove both restrictions, whether it's a specific bill focused on these bans or part of a larger piece of legislation.
So the market is not simply asking whether Congress will reconsider the onion ban, but whether both restrictions will be fully removed before the deadline.
Politics predictions
with multiple criteria like this are becoming increasingly common.
What Does Kalshi's Market Indicate?
Economy prediction markets
have become quite popular in recent years. Kalshi offers separate contracts for repeal of the law by different dates. Currently, its displayed chance estimates for different deadlines include:
- Before January 1, 2027: 4%
- Before January 1, 2028: 12%
- Before January 1, 2029: 15%
- Before January 1, 2030: 27%
The later deadlines give lawmakers more time to act. Even so, the figures suggest that traders see repeal as unlikely in the near future.
These estimates can change as people trade the contracts, but they do not mean Congress has announced a plan to repeal the law.
What Could Change the Probabilities?
One major sign that could shift the numbers drastically would be a bill that clearly calls for removing both bans. Support from lawmakers, progress in a congressional committee or a scheduled vote could also affect the market.
Congress could also include the changes in a wider bill about commodities or financial markets. Without a clear push from lawmakers however, repeal may struggle to gain attention.
If you’re new to prediction markets and would like to trade contracts on this topic, or if you want to see how Kalshi stacks up against other established platforms, check out our
list of prediction markets
for a comprehensive overview.
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