Crypto traders on
prediction market sites
like Kalshi are watching which major projects could launch their own tokens before the end of 2026. Kalshi's market currently includes projects such as Arc, Abstract, and Exponent. More than one project can launch a token and settle Yes.
Currently, Arc has the highest chance at 41%, followed by Abstract at 19% and Exponent at 5%, with roughly $70,000 in trading volume. Prices can move quickly, especially when a project makes an announcement about its token plans, making this market highly volatile.
Why Is Arc in the Lead?
Arc has the strongest public evidence of the three leading names. It is a Layer 1 blockchain developed by Circle, the company behind USDC. Circle launched the Arc mainnet on September 16, with more than 100 applications and more than 100 institutional and ecosystem builders involved at launch.
More importantly for the Kalshi market, Circle has already taken steps toward creating an ARC token. The company published an ARC whitepaper in May, describing a possible token that could be used for staking, governance, and other network functions.
Circle then went further in September by completing the genesis mint of 10 billion ARC tokens. That does not mean the Kalshi contract has already won, however.
Circle says the initial mint is not a commitment to launch ARC publicly. The network currently uses USDC to pay transaction fees, and the company is exploring a move toward Proof of Stake in 2027.
A public launch would therefore still need to happen before Kalshi's deadline.
What About Abstract and Exponent?
Abstract is another name attracting attention. Its blockchain already has an XP system that rewards users for activity, which has helped fuel speculation about a future token.
There is an important difference between reward points and an actual cryptocurrency, however, and Abstract has not officially confirmed a token launch date, which matters under Kalshi's rules.
The market requires a project to launch a fungible token on a blockchain. The token must be officially connected to the project, transferable between wallets, and have real economic value. It must also be distributed through a method such as an airdrop, public or private sale, liquidity provision, or exchange listing. Points that might become tokens later do not qualify.
Exponent is also included in the market, although traders currently give it a much lower predicted chance than Arc and Abstract. There are also contracts for projects including Ostium, Fomo, Felix Protocol, Rabby, Phantom, Base, and Unit, but they haven’t gained much traction in the prediction market.
What Could Change the Market?
The main factor to watch for is an official announcement. When it comes to ARC, confirmation of public distribution, an airdrop, or exchange trading could sharply move the market. For Abstract and the other candidates, a confirmed token generation event or launch date would also be significant.
Kalshi closes each contract early if the qualifying token launches. Otherwise, the 2026 market runs until December 31.
With only a little more than two months left in the year, traders will effectively keep judging which projects can move from plans, points, and rumors to a real, transferable cryptocurrency before the deadline.
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