Which New York City Restaurants Will Lose Michelin Stars in 2026?

Kalshi lets you make picks on almost everything in the real world, and that idea led us to introduce another great market for restaurant and culinary fans: Michelin stars for New York restaurants.

Every year, some restaurants gain Michelin stars, and others lose them, based on their offerings. You can now predict which ones will gain a star or two on Kalshi, have fun trading, and maybe even get lucky and grab some winnings!

What Are Michelin Stars?

Michelin stars are elite culinary ratings awarded to restaurants by the Michelin Guide, helping visitors seeking extraordinary food and dining experiences find them easily. This guide has a 100+-year history, tied to the tire manufacturing company that made the first guide for motorists so they could ride and visit the most prestigious places.

As the guide is now international, it offers ratings for many locations, including major U.S. regions such as New York. Reviews feature 2-3 culinary specialties and short summaries, and are written in the country's language.

The highest rating a restaurant can get is 3 stars, the medium rating is 2 stars, and the lowest is 1 star. Each rating points to different levels of excellence:

• 1 star: High-quality cooking, a restaurant worth a stop
• 2 stars: Excellent cooking, worth a detour
• 3 stars: Exceptional cuisine, worth a special journey

Foodies, restaurant reviewers, and travelers can use these guides, but they can now even predict the future; look at Kalshi, one of the trendiest prediction market sites in the US.

The “Which New York City Restaurants Lose Michelin Stars This Year?” Market at Kalshi

In addition to music, cinematography, and video games, Kalshi’s culture predictions include food, hence the New York restaurants’ Michelin star changes market. Currently, this market offers six restaurants, with prices for “Yes” and “No” outcomes, and chances of coming true shown in percentages for 5 of them:

The biggest leaders from the table are Masa and Jean-Georges. The first one confirmed a drop from 3 to 2 stars before the official Guide's publication, while the second is the most-picked option in online forum debates and prediction markets.

Per Se’s and Eleven Madison Park’s names were in focus, but nowhere near those of the two restaurants mentioned. The last one, Le Bernardin, has an almost equal liquidity for both “Yes” and “No” outcomes, making it currently a mystery for many traders. The fact that it holds 3 stars and has done so for two decades now doesn’t help, but it may hint at why it is the last likely candidate on the list to drop a star.

Kalshi is always eager to introduce fun markets like this one, including those for earning three Michelin stars or acquiring one or two stars, depending on their current rating.