Which Films Will Be Nominated for Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes?

The 2027 Golden Globes screenplay race is beginning to take shape, with awards watchers already tracking films that could earn nominations. Martin McDonagh's Wild Horse Nine, Jesse Eisenberg's The Debut and Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey are among the early contenders.

Kalshi currently offers a prediction market on which films will be nominated for Best Screenplay. Its prices give users a snapshot of how traders assess each film's chances, although these prices can change as new reviews, festival results, and awards-season news come in.

Which Movies Could Earn Golden Globe Screenplay Nominations?

The Cinema Group's early predictions include six movies: Wild Horse Nine, The Invite, The Debut, The Odyssey, La Bola Negra and The Social Reckoning. The list spans different styles from McDonagh's dark storytelling to Nolan's large-scale adaptation of Homer's epic.

Wild Horse Nine was written and directed by McDonagh, whose previous screenplay wins for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin give him a strong awards-season track record. The Debut, written and directed by Eisenberg, is another film attracting attention as critics begin building their early predictions.

The Odyssey brings Nolan into the race with a major literary adaptation, while The Social Reckoning, written by Aaron Sorkin, could appeal to voters familiar with his dialogue-driven scripts. The Invite and La Bola Negra round out The Cinema Group's initial six-film forecast.

What Does Kalshi Say About the Nomination Race?

Kalshi's Golden Globe Best Screenplay nomination market lets users take positions on individual films that might be nominated. The market doesn’t consider winners – just nominations.

In the latest nomination-market snapshot, La Bola Negra is in the lead with a 94% chance of nomination, followed by The Debut at 85%, The Invite at 81%, and The Odyssey at 80%.

A contract price can be read as a rough implied probability: a $0.70 price on a “Yes” contract, for example, suggests an implied chance of around 70% of the outcome occurring. Actual prices fluctuate with trading activity, plus fees and the gap between buy and sell prices can affect the cost of a position.

For those comparing prediction market apps, the key difference to take note of is between a nomination contract and a winner contract, since a film can have a high chance of making the shortlist but a lower chance of winning once nominated.

When Will the Golden Globe Nominees Be Announced?

The 84th Golden Globe Awards are set to take place on January 10, 2027. Until nominations are announced, critics' forecasts and prediction-market prices will continue to shift.

You can follow more entertainment contacts like this one through culture prediction sites.