Which Film Will Win Best International Feature Film at the 2027 Oscars?

While the 2027 Oscars are still months away, Kalshi traders already have a clear favorite for the Best International Feature Film.

La Bola Negra is leading the market at 80%. The Spanish movie is well ahead of Fjord at 14%, followed by The Spiral at 3% and Possible Love at 2%.

Since launching in late September, the market has accumulated over $10,000 in trading volume, offering early insights into which international movie is expected to win the prestigious award. The race is still developing ahead of the 99th Oscars ceremony, which will take place on Sunday, March 14, 2027, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.

The Kalshi market, which asks traders to forecast which film will win Best International Feature Film, also includes seven other options, including Tie, All of a Sudden, Coward, Everytime, Fatherland, Feito Pipa, and Minotaur.

Here, we’ll take a look at the main contenders and why La Bola Negra has the strongest support in one of the most popular culture predictions.

Which International Films Are Seeing the Strongest Probability?

Kalshi launched its Oscar Winner market for Best International Feature Film on September 24, 2026. A little over a month after launch, the market has generated over $10,000 in trading volume, showing a clear interest in the 2027 Oscars ceremony, which is scheduled for Sunday, March 14, 2027.

The market is set to close at 10 a.m. ET after the winner is announced, with December 31, 2027, listed as the latest closing date and payouts projected for 30 minutes after closing.

La Bola Negra, directed by Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, starring Guitarricadelafuente, Javier Butler, and Lorenzo Zurzolo, is the clear favorite at 80%. The Spanish movie follows three queer men in different time periods: 1932, 1937, and 2017.

The favorite is followed by Fjord at 14%, which follows a Romanian immigrant family in Norway and its struggles trying to navigate the local judicial system. The Spiral is third-listed, standing at 3%, and it follows a mother who visits her daughter during a storm to confess a lie that could destroy the whole family.

Other contenders include Possible Love, All of a Sudden, Coward, Everytime, Fatherland, Feito Pipa, and Minotaur, all given a 2% chance or less of winning Best International Feature Film at the 2027 Oscars at the time of writing.

What Other 2027 Oscars Markets Can You Find on Kalshi?

Kalshi’s 2027 Oscars lineup extends beyond Best International Feature Film, with markets on Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Animated Feature, Best Documentary Feature Film, and the supporting actor and actress categories.

This lineup is one example of what’s available on Kalshi and competing prediction market apps. The selection of culture markets on Kalshi also covers a wider range of entertainment topics, from major award shows to television and film.

Some of the trending markets from the culture category include Clayface: Rotten Tomatoes Score, Dancing with the Stars Season 35 Winner, NFL Championship Halftime Show: Headliner, Grand Theft Auto VI: Release Date, and Bad Bunny: Highest Daily View Count.